Post
by Sheff » Fri Jul 30, 2010 8:59 am
I seem to recall that the story originated in a report that the RAF had offered to abandon Nimrod MRA4 and to retire the Tornado fleet prematurely as part of their pre-SDR bidding. One assumes that the "journalists" are now running with the story and they're simply trying to make as much out of it as possible, even though there's no telling what the final outcome will be in the SDR.
But as I've said many times before, I think the prospect of losing the Tornado fleet early has seemed likely for some time. Service chiefs being how they are, they are doubtless keen to protect their shiny new toy (F-35) as best they can, and they're probably prepared to sacrifice whatever is necessary in order to keep it. My fear is that the financial situation is so bad that they may find that they've shot themselves in their proverbial feet and they will ultimately lose Nimrod, Tornado, Harrier and the F-35. One assumes that their logic is based on the notion that if they abandon Nimrod and Tornado, they will get enough cash to buy/support F-35. The risk is that the Treasury may well conclude that F-35 is still unaffordable and having effectively offered Tornado and Nimrod for disposal, the RAF will have no excuse for keeping them. There seems to be a very real possibility that there will be pressure to standardise on just one combat type in the shape of Typhoon and my view is that the RAF may well lose F-35, Tornado and Harrier over the next few years.
The real tragedy is the very real risk of losing Nimrod. By offering to abandon it, the RAF is clearly demonstrating that they are prepared to live without it and having done this, it's impossible to retract that viewpoint, therefore it's difficult to see how they can keep it now in the face of so much financial pressure from the Treasury. It's all very well to claim that there is no submarine threat to counter (at least for now - one assumes that the RAF have put their crystal ball back into the cupboard), but Nimrod was to have been much more than that and it had the potential to fulfil a wide variety of roles long into the future - maybe even becoming a stand-off nuclear weapons platform if Trident is eventually dumped. Now it looks as if the "plan" (although "hope" seems to be more accurate) is to rely upon a dwindling supply of Hercules to tackle occasional SAR tasks, and presumably any other roles appropriate to Nimrod will simply be abandoned.
Whilst I can see some vague logic in offering to abandon Tornado prematurely, it seems like a risky approach if it is being offered for sacrifice in the expectation that the RAF will get F-35. It seems even more risky when one considers the recent reports that the development of a catapult system for the two carriers is being studied again, which suggests that the possibility of opting for an "off-the-shelf" purchase of Hornets (or resurrecting the navalised Typhoon concept) is still very real - which implies that the F-35's future must still be very doubtful. But then this assumes that the carriers will still be brought into service and that still seems very unlikely indeed.
It's a messy business and I'm beginning to think that even the SDR isn't going to be the end of the matter. I suspect that this process is going to continue until the carriers are abandoned, F-35 is abandoned, the Tornado and Harrier fleets are withdrawn, and Nimrod is dumped. I don't think this saga is going to reach its logical conclusion until we are left with only Typhoons. It's hard to see how any other outcome is sustainable given the nation's situation.
. Also in the conversation there was mention of the harrier force being asked to look into the feasibility of standing up another harrier squadron.
