RAF Lossiemouth after Independence?

[onemac]

I'll have a bash at your increased staffing question - the new Scottish DVLA, the new Scottish Parliament and the new Scottish treasury (who will be up against it to print and forge the new Jock monetary system). Who owns Scottish Gas again and the Clydesdale Bank?

Al

[ythanpythan]

I set out to show that you're figure of 92% of Scottish public sector workers being out of a job was way off the mark, I consider I've done that clearly. Do you actually accept that now?

As I stated the higher level of public sector employment in Scotland does pose a problem but it's only the difference between the level in Scotland and the rest of the UK that's the issue as much of the rest of the roles would still be needed. Now these may not necessarily be in the same department as your HMRC and Al's DVLA examples show but on balance it's initially the 3% difference that is the problem as they are likely roles that would have to go after independence. Should Scotland then seek to reduce spending in certain areas such as defence then that department would have to reduce accordingly, however that may be offset by using that money elsewhere.

Try having a wee look at things from both sides of the fence, it's really rather fun.

TTFN

[mustang5861]

Just thought I’d throw this into the jobs debate:

According to a recent article in Aberdeen’s Press and Journal newspaper, there are 43,900 civil service jobs in Scotland, 61% (27,000) of which are UK Government posts.

During a recent meeting with the Federation of Master Builders, Keith Brown MSP, the Transport Minister, responded to a question about the threat to civil service jobs in the event of a Yes vote with the following:

‘I was waiting for the day when someone from the Labour-Tory alliance comes forward with a positive reason for independence, and perhaps we’ve just heard it – a reduction in the number of civil servants in Scotland.’

When asked to explain Mr Brown’s remark, the SNP’s press machine described it as a light-hearted aside’. Aye, I bet every one of those workers is laughing…

[scimitar]

Al, a good effort but we all know that the Scottish Treasury would actually just be John Sweeney and an acme printing press. As for the Clydesdale that's owned by the Australians and we know what their Prime Minister thinks of it all.
Am I persuaded Naw! But then again I'll just sit back and wait for the big giro to hit the doormat everyday or so. After all an independent Scotland will be run just like a bottomless shortbread tin.
Cammy (living someone else's dream)

[onemac]

Trust me when I say the Public Sector is not the place to be employed these days. Constant budget restraints, restructuring and money from both Central and UK Government being reduced by four or five times the rate of inflation mean that employees have around a 15% chance of being made redundant. In my own situation the section I worked for was under threat, both from redundancy (voluntary in the first instance) and the threat of being outsourced to the private sector. Feasibility studies and site specific professional services have had to be outsourced over the past ten years as the reduction in experienced staff have been endured due to budget cuts - and of course Government Grants help to soften the blow.

Me - I escaped due to a combination of long service and a section who, without replacing me, made an overall saving in their annual budget. I am sad though for my former colleagues who still have their workload and that of two of us who bit the bullet. Since then two others have retired/moved on and yet the workload steadily rises. A few years ago when it was as bad as we thought it would get, around 30% of staff were on anti-depressants - these days it's around 40% You can therefore easily surmise how they are going to vote with no real facts and figures offered as to how their jobs will be funded.

I know the above will be of interest to you chopper and I confess to being puzzled that given the outlook you are of the Yes persuasion and I'm serious about moving south if the vote goes the wrong way for me. It's nice around Coningsby I believe?

Al

[ukaviation]

Throwing something in here...

If YES, Salmond has big plans to throw out the UK nuclear deterrent from Scottish shores.

Would it not make more sense to keep it here, charge the UK government rent and also secure Scottish jobs in the surrounding area!!

Makes more sense?

Just one reason why a No is the way to go!

[ArabJazzie]

Throwing something in here...

If YES, Salmond has big plans to throw out the UK nuclear deterrent from Scottish shores.

Would it not make more sense to keep it here, charge the UK government rent and also secure Scottish jobs in the surrounding area!!

Makes more sense?

Just one reason why a No is the way to go!

As i pointed out could be used as a bargaining chip!
Arabest,
Geoff.

[toom317]

Here's a little thought that popped into my head last night. With all the talk of the loss to military shipbuilding in Scotland if we vote yes, does that mean if we vote no, do we get all the military shipbuilding jobs, or do we have to compete with other yards in Britain for the work?

[ArabJazzie]

Here's a little thought that popped into my head last night. With all the talk of the loss to military shipbuilding in Scotland if we vote yes, does that mean if we vote no, do we get all the military shipbuilding jobs, or do we have to compete with other yards in Britain for the work?

What other yards in the UK? I thought they were all gone!
Arabest,
Geoff.

[Sky Pirate]

I think he means China...

Hi Ho Hi Ho...It's off to vote we go...

[Topol-M]

The UK hasn't had another country build a RN ship for them for 100 years, except for during the two world wars

It has been stated by the MOD that SHOULD there be an independent Scotland, this policy will continue, with Scotland (and its yards) no longer being able to carry out the work without bidding as a foreign country

This will possibly include the Type 26's, with the recently ordered OPV's not being affected

Of course, it will mean job losses, although, there will be nothing stopping the skilled workers of Scotland moving to the UK (or what ever it is called) to carry out the work at another shipyard - taking lots of pounds to the English tax coffers

Mind you, they will be hellish busy building the Scottish Navy

[onemac]

So after the televised debate yesterday, what are your opinions? Have they changed?

No - I quite clearly still think Alex Salmond is a shitebag

[iain s]

So after the televised debate yesterday, what are your opinions? Have they changed?

No - I quite clearly still think Alex Salmond is a shitebag

[scimitar]

So after the televised debate yesterday, what are your opinions? Have they changed?

No - I quite clearly still think Alex Salmond is a shitebag

He's not even that high up in my estimation.

His ego is writing cheques that this Country can't cash. Hope he hasn't brainwashed too many after last night when his answer to everything was spend spend spend or that he would blackmail the rest of the UK.

One of the best being that the SDF HQ would replace the trident jobs at Faslane and Coulport. HQ to what? a couple of RIB's and a glider.

The man's a FUD.

[ythanpythan]

Impressive and insightful analysis gentlemen.

[gamecock]

Ian - we need a monkey throwing faeces smiley!

At the end of the day people posting about it on here have made up their minds, and it would take something extraordinary to change it now. Only the undecideds left to influence.

[ArabJazzie]

As someone who did most of my growing up through the Thatcher years, my mind was made up for independence years ago! Then Blair n Broon got in and really dropped us in it, so there was very little chance of Darling changing my mind. That does not mean that i am a fan of Alex, he is only the politician who is giving me a chance to follow my dream!

Alex did win last night, but apart from Darling shaking like a leaf at times, anyone notice his notes shaking when in his hand, it was members of the audience who were scoring more points against Darling than Alex was.

Now i hear pensions are quite rightly a major concern for people, including my parents who are close to retiring from a large UK retail company. Now UK Gov will have you think that pensions are a big problem for Independent Scotland. What they wont tell you is that Westminster is a bigger risk to the pension pot as they have plundered it before and are certain to plunder it again! This is why there is a big issue doon sooth in the public sector about pension at the minute as the employees are having to increase contributions to cover the deficit past governments have created! I understand the Scottish public sector pension pot is in good health!
Arabest,
Geoff.

[Malcolm]

As someone who did most of my growing up through the Thatcher years, my mind was made up for independence years ago! Then Blair n Broon got in and really dropped us in it, so there was very little chance of Darling changing my mind. That does not mean that i am a fan of Alex, he is only the politician who is giving me a chance to follow my dream!

Brown is a Scot, and technically so is/was Blair. Plenty in the remainder of the UK wished they'd stayed up north and bankrupted someone elses economy.

Now i hear pensions are quite rightly a major concern for people, including my parents who are close to retiring from a large UK retail company. Now UK Gov will have you think that pensions are a big problem for Independent Scotland. What they wont tell you is that Westminster is a bigger risk to the pension pot as they have plundered it before and are certain to plunder it again! This is why there is a big issue doon sooth in the public sector about pension at the minute as the employees are having to increase contributions to cover the deficit past governments have created! I understand the Scottish public sector pension pot is in good health!
Arabest,
Geoff.

You are confusing several different pension issues.

State pension is paid based on years earnt through NI contribuions. As of 2016, you will need 35 Years worth of contributions to get the full £144 per week - around £7500 a year. If Scotland becomes independent, that will reamain a liability for the UK, but, it may not increase in line with inflation. There are different rules for different countries - ex pats living in some countries get inflation increases, and other countries dont. The is no 'pension pot' to raid for this - never was, never wiill be. State pensions are paid for by current tax payers.

Your parents occupational pension in a large UK retail company is perfectly safe too. It's a seperate pot of money funded by the company and overseen by strict regulation. If the company were to go bust then HMG steps in (the Pension Protection Fund) and pays 90% of the entitlement. After independence, any rights earnt up till that point would be the responsibility of HMG, whereas future rights would be protected by whatever protections the scottish govt decide to implement.

Public sector pensions are a thorny issue. Basically they have to change, or those in them will have to accept massive pay cuts. The pension rights for Teachers, Police, Firemen, Nurses, Doctors etc are worth around 50% of their salary. So a Nurse on £20K in the final salary scheme is effectively earning almost £30K, since is would cost anyone else on £20K at least £10K p/a to buld up the same pension rights. Pre independence rights will remain with the UK. Post independence rights would pass to Scottish responsibility. These pensions are also 99.999% safe - the country has to go bankrupt for them not to be payed and if the country goes bankrupt then lots of other things become more important than money - like food and water. The govenment will just raise taxes (or borrow) to fund public sector pensions.

SO the only questions relavent to post independence questions are where is the scottish govt going to get the money to pay for future pension commitments, and how is it going to back private pension funds.

[hertsman]

I understand the Scottish public sector pension pot is in good health!
Arabest,
Geoff.

Has Scotland established its own public service pension fund? If it has, that could to be helpful in the long term. Many government/local government pension plans, at least south of the border, do not have 'pots' at all. They are 'unfunded' with today's pensions being paid from current taxation in all its forms. Whatever the situation is in Scotland, such social expenditure is affordable as long as North Sea energy supplies are there to support it. As they reduce, it will be essential to have invested some of the proceeds into new wealth-producing industries. I believe it is part of the SNP's plans to create a sovereign wealth fund to do just that. Scotland's voters must hold their government to that promise as without it, the level of social welfare spending would be unsustainable without significantly increasing taxation, which in turn impacts the country's competitiveness.

Returning to the military issues of independence, I see that there is no agreement on the division of defence assets should there be a 'Yes' vote. That is one of many unknowns still to be negotiated. So the original poster's question about what might go where cannot be answered, and will take many years to work out. As Scotland's defence plans would be geared to their domestic and foreign policy objectives, a simple percentage cut of current assets will likely not produce the sort of force structure that meets those objectives. This is because current assets are geared to UK policy, not Scotland's. Scotland's primary concern might be protection of its wealth-producing NS rigs, which might need small patrol boats, helicopters, an MPA and marines much more, perhaps, than it needs a T45 destroyer or a dozen Typhoons. Plenty of very knotty issue to thrash out.

hertsman

edit - just seen Malcolm's comprehensive pension report! Seconded.

h.

[onemac]

Impressive and insightful analysis gentlemen.

Thanks Ian - nobody has commented (positively) on the use of my intellect as yet

Al