RAF Lossiemouth after Independence?

[Malcolm]

There was talk of reinstating RAF Boyndie and the Banff Strike Wing

I should think RAF Rockall will be plenty big enough for the Scottish Air Force

[Thunder]

Well Rockall is where Mr Salmond should go, instead of trying to lead Scotland to a slow death.

[vulcanxl425]

As scimitar says there must be a plan B. I think the plan B folder for Lossiemouth is in a "pending" basket at MOD Whitehall and will either be actioned or binned depending on outcome of the vote next month

[Malcolm]

As scimitar says there must be a plan B.

I doubt there is even a properly thought out plan A.

[Jazz]

Ok, so it got political I appreciate a healthy debate as much as the next man or woman, but can anybody answer my original question from a simple, aviation enthusiast point of view??

Nothing wrong with the question, Steve.
Similar 'post-independence' subjects have been discussed before on here, and why not. It's bound to go off-topic and get 'emotional', but all good entertainment!
I guess nobody 'knows' yet what would happen at Lossie, if there was a yes vote. Plenty of predictions/presumtions/hopes mentioned to consider though.

Malcolm, thanks for the clear facts/links and reasoned debate. Speaking with Scots at work about this, one important issue not clear, was the SNP's policy on dealing with Scotland's share of the UK's debts/borrowing. We put the 'Salmond would pay for it with 30 years of oil money' down to tabloid-tattle!
So, interesting to read you have covered this...
"HMG has already said that all current UK debts/borrowing will remain UK debts/borrowing in the (unlikely) event that Scotland votes for independence. It follows that the defult position will be that any/all assets purchased by the UK with that borrowed money will remain UK assets. The discussions following a vote for independence will revolve about what assets Scotland would like to take on, and how they're going to pay for them."
TBH, i thought this was a thorny issue, to be negotiated? But HMG has already decided they would take the hit on this? (estimated at around £1.5 Trillion at the time of independence?). The UK would be better off in the long run doing this?

[Jazz]

One small point people are not realising the Vote on the 18th isn't about SNP Alex Salmond etc it's about do (we) the Scottish people want to seperate from Westminster and govern ourselves.
After that we may end up with a Scottish Labour government or SNP or a coalition including Greens. So don't personalise it about Alex it's much bigger issue than him, it's about my children's and their children's future we're voting on.

Sure, but the Scottish people need to decide now, and are considering the future plans being layed out by the SNP (and UK government)?
They can't change their minds, if any future Scottish Labour government etc, have different policies. People shouldn't base their decision on the SNP's policies, as a future Scottish government could change/re-negotiate things? Important issues that will affect future generations, such as finance, are being layed out now... and play a part in how people vote, now.

[Malcolm]

"HMG has already said that all current UK debts/borrowing will remain UK debts/borrowing in the (unlikely) event that Scotland votes for independence. It follows that the defult position will be that any/all assets purchased by the UK with that borrowed money will remain UK assets. The discussions following a vote for independence will revolve about what assets Scotland would like to take on, and how they're going to pay for them."
TBH, i thought this was a thorny issue, to be negotiated? But HMG has already decided they would take the hit on this? (estimated at around £1.5 Trillion at the time of independence?). The UK would be better off in the long run doing this?

HMG said it to prevent the yeild (interest) on UK Gilts going up. Basically, Gilts are issued in various lengths - from a few months to tens of years. When it comes time to payback expiring gilts, HMG typically just issues some more to someone else (rolling over the debt), and then uses the new money to pay back to the owners of the old ones. The interest rate HMG has to pay on the new gilts is directly affected by investor confidence in the UK, and how likely the investor thinks it will be that they'll get their money back. Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy all nearly went belly up (defaulted) recently when their Gilt rates hit 8%. The UK currently pays about 2.5% http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GUKG10:IND

So HMG borrows money from Peter to pay back Paul. Anything that messes with investor confidence in HMG would result in paying more interest to Paul on the money used to pay back Peter. Since both Peter and Paul loaned the money to HMG, in Pounds Sterling, they will want HMG to honour the debt and pay it back, in pounds sterling. Failure to do so risks UK default. So HMG had basically no option but to say it would stand behind all UK debts if Scotland decides to leave the union. Anything else would lead to HMG paying more in interest - and we're already skint.

So post a 'yes' independence vote, all UK assets, and all UK debts remain with the UK. Scotland starts with a blank sheet of paper and writes out a wish list. The negotiations then revolve around what assets Scotland would like, and how they're going to pay for it. Scotland could try to issue it's own Gilts (in GBP or Groats), borrow the money itself, and pay the UK. The UK then pays off some of the Debt (or more likely pi55es it up the wall!) Trouble is, as a new Small Country/Government, investors are likely to demand higher interest rates to cover the risk of default.

Money markets have no soul, sympathy or morals. They will crucify a country if they think they can make money by doing so.

[Malcolm]

These loans are called government guilts.

Pure dead brilliant!

It was late, and I was drunk, but it's a good Freudian spelling mistake :-)

[Thunder]

One small point people are not realising the Vote on the 18th isn't about SNP Alex Salmond etc it's about do (we) the Scottish people want to seperate from Westminster and govern ourselves.
After that we may end up with a Scottish Labour government or SNP or a coalition including Greens. So don't personalise it about Alex it's much bigger issue than him, it's about my children's and their children's future we're voting on.

Yes, but since every other party are for staying in the Union, the Yes vote on the 18th is being based solely on SNP policies and beliefs led by Alex, so in reality it is a vote for the SNP. Can the Scottish Labour or Tories hold a referendum in 15 years time to take us back into the Union, no!! Once we're out we're out.

Is it is bigger than Alex, too right it is shame he doesn't think so.

[Mike]

It's actually nice to read a good thread about this without the Mods stepping in and having to lock it.

Long may that continue.

Have spoken to a few colleagues from work today regarding the "vote" - I'm more than twice the age of them and they said that they're all voting "yes".

After I mentioned National Security, future currency, driving licences, passports........etc..........etc..........they saw the sensible side of things and have gone home for a serious "think".

One of them said to me that his Dad always told him to be anti-English for his whole life because Maggie Thatcher tried out the Poll (Council) tax in Scotland first - a full year before it hit England. What?

There's going to be an awful lot of "yes" votes because "Dad" said so from the under 30s, don't forget that the minimum age for voting is 16 for this one !

Do 16 year-olds really have the life experience to vote in any election/referendum to decide their country's future? Errrrmmmm............NO !

16 year-olds can't even buy tobacco or alcohol legally in Scotand - they can't even drive a car until they're 17, so why are they allowed to vote in the biggest vote that Scotland have ever had?

There's too many unanswered things, in my opinion it's basically an anti-English vote.

[np1991]

One small point people are not realising the Vote on the 18th isn't about SNP Alex Salmond etc it's about do (we) the Scottish people want to seperate from Westminster and govern ourselves.

Another point people aren't realizing is that if there is a yes vote, then King Eck of the shortbread palace wants to join Europe. So basically instead of being run by Westminster, the country will be run by Brussels. How is that Independence?

[Mike]

Basically Salmond and Sturgeon should be put up against a wall and shot, because they haven't thought this one out !

[ArabJazzie]

It's actually nice to read a good thread about this without the Mods stepping in and having to lock it.

Long may that continue.

Really surprised this one is still running as well seen as it looks to have drifted to the political! Makes a damn good read though and i hope it stays that way!!!

Have spoken to a few colleagues from work today regarding the "vote" - I'm more than twice the age of them and they said that they're all voting "yes".

After I mentioned National Security, future currency, driving licences, passports........etc..........etc..........they saw the sensible side of things and have gone home for a serious "think".

One of them said to me that his Dad always told him to be anti-English for his whole life because Maggie Thatcher tried out the Poll (Council) tax in Scotland first - a full year before it hit England. What?

There's going to be an awful lot of "yes" votes because "Dad" said so from the under 30s, don't forget that the minimum age for voting is 16 for this one !

Do 16 year-olds really have the life experience to vote in any election/referendum to decide their country's future? Errrrmmmm............NO !

16 year-olds can't even buy tobacco or alcohol legally in Scotand - they can't even drive a car until they're 17, so why are they allowed to vote in the biggest vote that Scotland have ever had?

There's too many unanswered things, in my opinion it's basically an anti-English vote.

On National Security good buddy, i cant see how you can trust Westminster one little bit as some of their decisions over the last 25 years have brought a whole lot of hurt to our shores, never mind ridding an Island nation of its Maritime defense!

Future currency is going to be connected to Trident and debt share negotiations so watch that space! As for the made up stories about Driving Licences and Passports, well we do have Passport Offices in the country already which appear to be run slightly better than those doon sooth. For that reason, i see no issue and fully expect the DVLA still be issuing British Isles driving licences. You also look to the NHS to see that we can do things better(if only slightly) than south of the border.

The poll tax was introduced into Scotland a year before England/Wales and im sure this has been repeated with regards to the bedroom tax but i cannot readily find the supporting evidence!

Now your final point about 16 -18 year olds voting. My wife and i are voting Yes, but my eldest who has just turned 17, has stuck to he guns and said no since she found out she will get her chance to help decide the future. Now as an apparent No voter, im sure you would be happy to stop her voting! Lets face it, its more their future than ours init, and 16 is a good cut off point in my mind.

And its most definitely not an Anti-English vote. Its about some people in a country that is part of a United Kingdom, that wants a chance at returning to become a country in its own right again.

And who can blame us with the state that successive Westminster Governments have got this country into! Term after term, Blue Tory and Red Tory built up a National Debt that has been hidden behind a smoke screen of Budget Deficit. And now the Blue n Yellow Tories are in, they are ensuring the rich are getting richer, and the poor having to go to FOOD BANKS!!!

I cant believe though that someone doesnt understand, we dont want any seats in Westminster with independence!
Freedom!
Geoff.

[mustang5861]

There's going to be an awful lot of "yes" votes because "Dad" said so from the under 30s, don't forget that the minimum age for voting is 16 for this one !

Do 16 year-olds really have the life experience to vote in any election/referendum to decide their country's future? Errrrmmmm............NO !

16 year-olds can't even buy tobacco or alcohol legally in Scotand - they can't even drive a car until they're 17, so why are they allowed to vote in the biggest vote that Scotland have ever had?

As everyone, whatever side of the fence they're on, seems to agree: it's all about politics. Why are 16- and 17-year-olds being allowed to vote in the referendum? Because 'Call Me Dave' Cameron raised absolutely no objections to the SNP's wish that they be allowed to do so. And why was that? Because Dave knows that it increases the likelihood of a 'Yes' vote, the result of which in terms of the composition of the House of Commons after the 2016 GE would be to the infinite benefit of the Conservative Party in terms of seats and at least a working majority. Anyone who believed the old Neil Kinnock line from c.1983 that 'You can't play politics with people's lives', well wake up and smell the coffee!

[Malcolm]

Future currency is going to be connected to Trident and debt share negotiations so watch that space!

There is always the "Hong Kong" option. The UK leases the land and sea that Faslane requires for 25-100 years. Or the Gibraltar option Or the Transnistria/Crimea option

As for the made up stories about Driving Licences and Passports, well we do have Passport Offices in the country already which appear to be run slightly better than those doon sooth. For that reason, i see no issue and fully expect the DVLA still be issuing British Isles driving licences. You also look to the NHS to see that we can do things better(if only slightly) than south of the border.

Agree. I fully expect Scots to be granted dual nationality, so existing UK passports and driving licences would remain valid. That also gets round any problems with EU travel for Scots in the event the EU delay accepting an independent Scotland into the EU. If Scotland want to setup their own Passport/Driving Licenses then fine - up to them.

The real problem is what happens at the end of week/month 1 of independence. Police, Teachers, Nurses, Doctors, Pensioners, Service personel will all want paying. That money will have to come from either taxation, or borrowing. Taxation requires an Inland revenue and national insurance system, which requires yet more people, all of who will want paying at the end of Month 1 too. Borrowing requires that someone is prepared to lend to you. So who is Scotland going to borrow from, and what interest rate are they going to have to pay?

Whichever way you look at it, the setup costs before independence are going to be huge. It will have to act seamlessly from day one, or lots of people wont get paid.

Now your final point about 16 -18 year olds voting. My wife and i are voting Yes, but my eldest who has just turned 17, has stuck to he guns and said no since she found out she will get her chance to help decide the future. Now as an apparent No voter, im sure you would be happy to stop her voting! Lets face it, its more their future than ours init, and 16 is a good cut off point in my mind.

"Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time." (Winston Churchill, House of Commons, Nov. 11, 1947)"

And its most definitely not an Anti-English vote. Its about some people in a country that is part of a United Kingdom, that wants a chance at returning to become a country in its own right again.

And who can blame us with the state that successive Westminster Governments have got this country into! Term after term, Blue Tory and Red Tory built up a National Debt that has been hidden behind a smoke screen of Budget Deficit. And now the Blue n Yellow Tories are in, they are ensuring the rich are getting richer, and the poor having to go to FOOD BANKS!!!

In the Uk, Budget deficits have tended to reduce during "Blue" periods, and increased during "Red" periods. There are currently no Tory MP's in Scotland. It therefore sees reasonable to assume that an independent Scotland will tend to the "Red" side of politics. That may be good for those requiring food banks, but the markets will assume Scotland will run up deficits at a faster rate than a "Blue" UK. This will hit Scottish Gilt rates - the current predictions are that Scotland will have to pay at least 4%, verses the UK's current 2.5%. So it's going to cost Scotland around 1.5% more to fund it's spending than it currently costs the UK. Ultimatley that means you either have to be 1.5% more efficient, or taxes have to be (at least) 1.5% higher.

Recently published research has shown Scottish independence is largely cost neutral to the remainder of the Uk (£100 per person on GDP). So if 1.5% on everything from day one is a price Scots are prepared to pay to have their own bunch of crooks in Edinburgh make decisions, rather than a bunch of crooks in Westminster, then now's your chance.

[sherriff]

If this issue concerns the future of Scotland and is to be decided by the Scots.......what about the thousands of full Scots who currently work/live outside Scotland ? What say do they have ?

[Malcolm]

If this issue concerns the future of Scotland and is to be decided by the Scots.......what about the thousands of full Scots who currently work/live outside Scotland ? What say do they have ?

None. You have to have a permenent address in Scotland to be eligable to vote in the referendum.

Or, if you mean after a yes vote - the best thing that a loyal expat Scot could do would be to move back to Scotland and pay the inevitable extra taxes to support their country.

[sherriff]

Then it's not a representative vote then, is it.

[Malcolm]

Then it's not a representative vote then, is it.

I'm half Scottish - Father born in Montrose and educated in Stirling/Perth before moving to civilisation (Birmingham ) in the 1960's. Are you saying he (and I) should get to vote?

[sherriff]

Full.