Weather watch for the week ahead

[Headancer]

Met office have now issued a "be aware" warning for Thursday re heavy rain/localised flooding

Might be useful for those that can juggle plans !

Thread merged for RIAT weather thread.

[BMrider]

Met office have now issued a "be aware" warning for Thursday re heavy rain/localised flooding

For the South west (Cornwall)

I find this site useful, being a biker I keep an eye on the weather, and this site seems to get it right most of the time



http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/fairford" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;





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[Headancer]

ah right it looked as though it was encroaching on Gloucestershire !

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ ... html?day=3" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The BBC forecast is bizarre

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2649741" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Maps show bright spells or sun all day but the txt says wet with heay showers !

Work that one out !

[nick197]

They just said on South today that Thursday is going to be the driest day of the week , I think there pressing and guessing covering every angle

[Ashley Wallace]

To be honest I think there is rain heading Fairfords way but i think its a case of just seeing how it goes as they always predict wrong. Thursday isnt looking too bad though..

[BMrider]

Ever since Michael Fish gaffe about the Hurricane in the 80's the weather forcast seem to err on the side of gloom, another factor is event insurance which relies on accuate predections to set their costs, generally I find the actual weather on the day to generaly be a bit better than forecast, for photography though there's no bad weather, just different weather

[graham luxton]

The good news from the forecast is that the Southerly x-wind is expected to remain steady at below 16knots. If it was 16knots or more we really would have something to moan about!

[nick197]

Not looking to bad tomorrow
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?acti ... =#forecast" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Very light rain with the clouds disspersing through the day

[nick197]

Although it looks like the winds may favour runway 09

[Richard B]

United Kingdom
Warnings

Thursday 5 July Published at 00:18
UK Warnings
Weather Warning

Thursday 5th July

YELLOW WARNING for RAIN

Southwest England, southern half of Scotland and Northern and Eastern England are likely to be affected by heavy showers or thunderstorms on Thursday with the potential for some heavy rainfall in places. The public should be aware that, following recent heavy rainfall, the ground remains saturated, and that further rainfall would lead to surface water issues and perhaps localised flooding.

Valid Thursday 1000 to 2359

Thursday 5th July

AMBER EARLY WARNING for RAIN

Warm and moist air across large parts of the Midlands and up to northern England will cause heavy locally thundery rain to develop during Friday and Saturday. 20-40 mm will fall widely over the two days and possible up to 60-100mm. The public should be prepared for disruption to travel. Following recent heavy rainfall, the ground remains saturated, and further rainfall may lead to surface water issues and an increased risk of river flooding.

Valid 0005 Friday to 2359 Saturday

Thursday 5th July

YELLOW EARLY WARNING for RAIN

Heavy and persistent rain is likely to extend across England (away from the southwest), northeast Wales and southern Scotland through Friday and Saturday. The public should be aware that, following recent heavy rainfall, the ground remains saturated, and that further rainfall may lead to surface water issues with perhaps localised flooding and possible disruption to travel.

Valid 0005 Friday to 2355 Saturday

Just hope Fairford miss this weather.

[Blue Diamond]

Met Office currently giving cloudy from a couple of hours after sunrise changing to light showers and sunny intervals from around midday on Sunday.
Much the same for Saturday but some showers forecast to be heavy. Wonder how many times they'll change their minds over the next 48 hours.

[Richard B]

Weather here in the south east of Coventry as been very warm and sunny all morning, massive change here with heavy rain every day for the past week.
got the insurance repair for my conservatory roof from last Thursdays hail storm, broke marble size holes in every roof panel. so a stark contrast, if RIAT had the rain we have 30 miles up the road the place would be a bog.

[RichC]

Be prepared for more heavy rain tomorrow........
Looks to be an area from the M4 corridor north into the Midlands for tomorrow. Up to 500-750j/kg with warm temps could trigger some very lively and torrential downpours from around 1500 onwards.

Today, most of the convective showers will be confined to an area from Essex up to North Yorkshire... and they have already broken out now, one Thunderstorm is currently plagueing Mildenhall.

Fairford should (hopefully) keep a lot dryer today

[Dannnn]

Came home from Fairford today with sunburn! Around 20 degrees with some nice bits of blue sky!

[chubsbdc]

Hi all,

Can anyone at Fairford confirm the weather currently.
Heavy rain here in Cheltenham, the weather forecast shows us on edge of rain with Fairford under white cloud,
just looking for confirmation.

Though weather foecast looking dodgy later today!!!

Regards
Brian

[richpittman]

Dry here,actully brightening a bit at present

[chubsbdc]

Thanks,

Absolutely pouring down here still.....looks like Cheltenham is on the Southern edge of the rain!!

Regards
Brian

[RichC]

Well, i did say the M4 and northwards which it is doing for now, however ML-CAPE values show the southern portion of central England could well see some downpours a bit later this morning or as said, from Noon onwards.
These could be elevated as there is a rather warm moist plume coming in from the south east and east dragged in by the LP sitting off the south west.

Certainly need to watch the radar today for an area between Sussex and Devon and up to Northern England (west/east), a rectangle so to speak will see some rather heavy rainfall with the risk of flash flooding.
Convection is already firing up some thunderstorms over the north Midlands and Northern England with more elevated cells developing in the English Channel and sweeping north west.

There is a risk, from 12 Noon onwards of Fairford getting some downpours however the radar will confirm this later on if it is in the firing line.

[Gary]

Sat in FRIAT, damn rain! lol, beer time i think

[Richard B]

More heavy rain forecast for a lot of the day Saturday, Sunday is the day I will be going thou I feel it will be cancelled,
Great line up for RIAT only to be spoiled by the weather, lets hope Saturdays show goes ahead and Sunday.
looks very grim thou.