Red Arrow down Bournemouth 2011

[BennyBoy]

Hi,

It must have been XX179.....

I was at Coningsby on 2/9/11... And XX308 did a touch and Go,

Regards

Ben

[Hurn]

Yes it was confirmed that XX179 was the aircraft that crashed. It was originally assigned to Red 5 but they rotate the aircraft around between pilots during the display season.

XX308 can be seen leaving Hurn here the weekend after the accident.

Is that right? - I didn't know that. All a/c handle a little differently so I assumed they would only change either for reasons of servicing or when they need to use the spare.

Yes, it was mentioned recently in one of the local newspapers articles that it was normal for aircraft to be swapped between pilots during the season.

The only reason I could think of was that perhaps it's something to do with some aircraft being stressed more than others and by rotating them they can keep the fatigue life more even throughout the fleet?

[kurt.fairhurst]

For anybody who would like to listen to the display audio from Friday i have it here :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FalHrGzZ ... ideo_title" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QM4H_Jd ... ure=relmfu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[The Phantom]

I'm really confused now!
A while back in (i think) this post, it was said that XX308 had crashed; But now witnesses have seen it flying last week...

So is it now definitely confirmed that it was XX179 that crashed?

[Mike]

XX179 crashed, not '308.

It was assumed by many that the Hawk involved was '308 as that was Jon's usual mount, however there was an airframe swap and he actually flew '179 on that tragic day.

[Hurn]

I'm really confused now!
A while back in (i think) this post, it was said that XX308 had crashed; But now witnesses have seen it flying last week...

So is it now definitely confirmed that it was XX179 that crashed?

Yes, see the bottom of this article : http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/

[Mike]

Hi Jem - nice to hear that you had a good holiday but the correct serial was posted about 10 days ago !

[garyscott]

Some you win..... :)Having been away, still catching up, but does anyone go along with my purely speculative cause of this accident as being 'G' Lock??, which can never medically be ascertained post-mortem, as far as I understand. From what non-expert knowlwedge I have gathered over many years of Aviation interest, it appears to have all the hall marks of that probably being the cause. Time of course, will tell. If necessary, I will post my reasons why IMHO it may well be the cause.

Going by the video of that final turn, (and this is speculative - but with an informed view) G-LOC wouldn't have been a factor in this case. The airspeed and turn rate are both too low. I estimate around 300 knots at the break, roughly 4G level turn, speed decay in the turn would have scrubbed around 50 knots - maybe more if the throttles were retarded - to final it at around 2.5G at roll out.
Service pilots are trained to strain the G out (minimise the effects) so as to cope with the punishment of the 3 - 8G regime. G-LOC most commonly occurs at high G, and prolonged G exposure when the pilot has not got a good strain regimen.
The prolonged exposure i refer to is not the amount of seperate G loads encountered throughout a display, but rather a sustained pull of high enough G for (typically) 7 - 8 seconds or more.

[johnwayne]

I think it is far too early and DISRESPECTFUL to be indulging in speculation as to the accident cause -only the official investigation has all the facts and doubtless in time we will be informed as to what actually happened. Nuff said !

[steve149c]

I don't think that Jem is being disrespectful in the slightest - he is putting forward a theory. Theories are always the way that we answer questions - no matter where they point. Take the death of Wing Commander Guy Gibson - some people say he was shot down, the other theory says that he ran out of fuel as he was unfamiliar with the switch between the petrol tanks - so you have a bomber ace of 170+ missions who dies simply for not knowing his aircraft. It is the same here, as much as we would love to hear that Jon was a hero and avoided the buildings/schools etc, we have to understand that the Offical Report may not give us the answer that we want.

Theories:

G-Lock or Similar
Massive Bird Strike
Fuel Starvation
Contol failure
etc etc

Jem is only discussing (and quite rightly so) his theory based on his knowledge and sighting former similar events.

Steve

[steve149c]

I agree - but if a theory can be backed up by reasoned thought, and past instances sighted - then it should be aired. Stupid ideas however, I agree should no be written down.

Steve

[johnwayne]

Jem60 - my point is about timing & in my view its premature when its still so 'raw'. No disrespect intended to you for which I'm happy to apologise.

[Al dunn]

I find it completely disrespectful to Flt Lt Jon Egging's wife and family that people are here speculating about what happened the truth will come out evetually, so until then lets leave the family to grieve in peace and just remeber what a true hero and awesome display pilot Jon was. And as a member of the RAF I am proud to say he represented us all.

All I can say is RIP Red 4

[garyscott]

Speculative discussion is and should be a healthy part of a forum.
There is no malice, no disrespect etc etc.
Im sure each and every one of us has looked at the aftermath of a road accident and said "i bet he hit the guardrail first", or "looks like the green BMW caused that". Thats speculation.
This unfortunate happening is in the same vein.
Jem60 - dont worry chap, your points and speculation are just as valid and welcome as anyone elses.

Defamation of character and insinuating remarks are what are not tolerated, and i have seen none of that directed at Flt Lt Egging in this thread,
Only directed at other forum members.

[urkles]

Jem - I would like to say that i have agreed with everything you have posted on this forum, in fact, the only reason I have not yet posted on this thread was that you always got there before me and written what I thought better than I could! And I mean what you wrote about the press as well.

I think one of the reasons for the outpour of grief this time round is shock - accidents within the british forces is thankfully a lot better than a few years ago and the Red Arrows even more so. As the Red Arrows are something we all see regularly then the shock is manifested. All of us in the Forces have experienced a sudden death of a fellow serviceman I would imagine, which is why some of us can feel the reaction to the death of Jon Egging is disproportionate compared to a pilot from your own unit or a soldier killed from your platoon.

Jem, keep posting, I for one enjoy and respect your views, and can safely say I have agrred with every one (so far!)

Mark

[wokka]

I also think there has to be a time when speculation begins, as long as no-one tries to claim their view is superior, because without the information at our fingertips that the official inquiry will have, we simply wont know. If we keep schtum until the results of the inquiry and then the appeal into the results of the inquiry etc, we may never talk about it. Can you imagine not ever commenting on the Nimrod tragedy, or the Chinook in Mull until just recently?

It has definitely been more sensitive because the Arrows are such a public face of the air force and almost revered above all others because of what they do (rightly or wrongly), and therefore the unwritten rule about when to speculate is stretched as long as possible.

My opinion is that if its out of respect to the family of the individual then they should have had time to bury their family member and remember him for what they did before the incident. After this, even the wife/husband/sons/daughters will begin to ask questions, so why shouldnt we?

Of course if it is through lack of facts that we should not speculate then it has to be after release of information by the RAF. Forever in other words.

So should I put forward my theory that it could have been down to the pilot having had a heart attack or Stroke, leading to him being unable to affect the aircraft?

[Tooks]

First off, Jem, your posts on here are always amongst the most reasoned and interesting ones on here, so please carry on!

Second, everybody has the right to grieve how they want to. Personally, I don't see how you can grieve for somebody you never knew (seems a bit narcissistic?), so for me it's just sorrow at a tragic event (as in many other events), but then move on. Flt. Lt. Egging's colleagues are back in the air, so don't see why an unconnected forum can't return to business as usual, which will include talking about air crashes.

So, on that note, I tend to agree with Jem and Wokka that something must have incapacitated the pilot, otherwise why wouldn't he have ejected, even at the last second? Of course, his seat may have failed, but that should be established by analysis of the wreck.

It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

[headset 57]

I think it is far too early and DISRESPECTFUL to be indulging in speculation as to the accident cause -only the official investigation has all the facts and doubtless in time we will be informed as to what actually happened. Nuff said !

errr, no actually!
and on that note.... QSY...

[urkles]

Three things:

Can you say 100% that people on here are unconnected to Jon??????????????????? No
Can you say 100% that people close to Jon do not come on here????????????????No
Can you say 100% that no member of this forum works for a newspaper???????? No

You can also put

Can you say 100% that people on here are connected to Jon?
And so on

Jem's point is valid,and in fact, I agree with all that he says

When Naval legend Jack London was killed, all of us on deployment with him were speculating what happened, all of us was asking 'why?'. I bet the same is happening in Afghanistan everytime a soldier is killed. I bet the same is now happening in a crewroom in Russia for the Mig crew that just died. Are you saying that they are being disrespectful?

What if the press quotes what is written on this forum? I thought you would prefer the press to report a more valid and thought out reason for the accident? If they quote someone from here, so what? People can make their own choice on what to believe.

Mark

[urkles]

I can say 100% some people who knew Jon throughout his RAF career, do come on here. Not everyone on here is the same, I bet we have ex service members, people who have never been in the services and current serving personnel. Just bear that in mind is all I am saying.

You all seem to think talking about reasons between work mates etc in the crewroom, pub or etc, is the same as posting it in a public forum which anyone can join, and read your comments.

I am not saying its the same, I am saying it does not matter. After all, we have free speech in this country, something our armed forces have fought and died for

Also I do not understand what your first paragraph is trying to say to me, did I give the impression that I thought everyone is all the same? Sorry if I did

Mark