The Ukraine Situation

[Red-Eye-Knight]

Just saw this very sad news from European Airshows page...


We have received some extremely shocking and sad news from Ukraine this morning.

Colonel Oleksandr “Grey Wolf” Oksanchenko who was the Ukrainian Air Force Flanker display pilot between 2013-2018 has lost his life on Friday night when his jet was shot down over Kyiv by Russian air defences.

Col. Oksanchenko was not only a very experienced pilot who won a number of awards for the best flying display at many events across Europe, but he was also a true fan of airshows. Despite leaving the active service and joining the reserves in late 2018 he volunteered to remain in the Ukrainian Flanker Solo Display Team as a coach/advisor and travelled with the team during the 2019 display season which was also the last airshow season for the team.

He came out of retirement to defend his country from the Russian invasion and paid the highest price. Col. Oksanchenko was posthumously awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine by the president of the Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Blue skies sir and thank you for all your amazing displays!

[Pesmog]

As sad as the above news is, I keep reading reports and hearing commentators saying that the general absence of Russian airpower is baffling the experts. Russian ground forces are apparently being held up as they have little air support and Russia apparently is far from having air superiority. The issue not being the resistance they are facing in the sky's, but instead that they are simply not putting anywhere near the required numbers of aircraft over Ukraine. A US retired 4 star General was interviewed on the radio earlier today and he expressed his complete astonishment as to the current air war tactics being used by Russia. Apparently the Nato experts are equaly perplexed. If this is the case, it all seems very strange.

[2e1var]

As sad as the above news is, I keep reading reports and hearing commentators saying that the general absence of Russian airpower is baffling the experts. Russian ground forces are apparently being held up as they have little air support and Russia apparently is far from having air superiority. The issue not being the resistance they are facing in the sky's, but instead that they are simply not putting anywhere near the required numbers of aircraft over Ukraine. A US retired 4 star General was interviewed on the radio earlier today and he expressed his complete astonishment as to the current air war tactics being used by Russia. Apparently the Nato experts are equaly perplexed. If this is the case, it all seems very strange.

I've been thinking the same. Let's be honest he has the ability to flatten any part of Ukraine he wants, he's done it before in Syria and Grozny. Even though my view is that he's insane maybe he's just trying to be careful not to do too much damage to civilian infrastructure. I know there's been some but let's be honest it could be a lot, lot worse. I can't imagine there's much left of the Ukranian AF but from what I've seen on the news I guess their air defences are pretty strong. My fear is that if this drags on too long he'll get inpatient and god knows what will happen then. Doesn't bear thinking about.
As for the ground forces it does seem odd the progress is so slow, I wonder if there's an element of Putin's troops not giving it 100% if you know what I mean, their heart not being in it.

Rich

[Col Nago]

Pesmog / 2e1var - I think this very informative study that's just been released might answer a few of your questions:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... -air-force

*Mods - this could maybe have gone in the Mess as it should fit the topic, so feel free to move it.

[Pesmog]

Col Nago, thanks that is an interesting non-technical read that backs up what 2e1var and me were thinking.

[colp]

To me it looks like the plan of Russia is to try and surround the whole of the country from each angle and then work their way in. I guess this is an obvious plan?

[Col Nago]

Ukraine is a massive country and I would be hugely surprised if they don't stop if/when they take Kyiv and then focus on the East of the Dnieper. Essentially an East / West Berlin type situation. They've totally ballsed up their first objectives - can you imagine how much force they would need to make is all the way to the Polish/Slovakian/Hungarian/Romanian/Moldovan borders?

[pg1610]

More Drones

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/3035 ... ium=social

[colp]

If you look at the map of the Ukraine and go by where they have started from Crimea then maybe they will try and take two thirds but knowing Putin he'll want the lot. I wonder how much damage they have done to the huge convoy outside Kyiv and also if there are similar convoys elsewhere like in the south (Crimea) for example?

[Bobcode]

Russian military tactics are very simplistic, what they lack in skill and expertise, they make up for by weight of numbers.History shows the Russian indifference to human life, just keep sending troops in despite the devastating cost in lives lost and eventually weight of numbers will overcome. I believe the lack of appearance of Russian fixed wing aircraft is down to the potential loss due to friendly fire from ground defences and demonstrating that their expertise may not be as good as perceived by the West.This is just my view.
I wonder if Putin fully grasps the consequences of his actions, whatever the outcome, there is no way back for him, he will be reviled by all, no one will forgive and forget, this makes him even more dangerous.

[Col Nago]

I believe the lack of appearance of Russian fixed wing aircraft is down to the potential loss due to friendly fire from ground defences and demonstrating that their expertise may not be as good as perceived by the West.This is just my view.

See the article that I linked to in my previous post Bobcode re missing Russian Air Force.

[Craig]

As sad as the above news is, I keep reading reports and hearing commentators saying that the general absence of Russian airpower is baffling the experts. Russian ground forces are apparently being held up as they have little air support and Russia apparently is far from having air superiority. The issue not being the resistance they are facing in the sky's, but instead that they are simply not putting anywhere near the required numbers of aircraft over Ukraine. A US retired 4 star General was interviewed on the radio earlier today and he expressed his complete astonishment as to the current air war tactics being used by Russia. Apparently the Nato experts are equaly perplexed. If this is the case, it all seems very strange.

I've been thinking the same. Let's be honest he has the ability to flatten any part of Ukraine he wants, he's done it before in Syria and Grozny. Even though my view is that he's insane maybe he's just trying to be careful not to do too much damage to civilian infrastructure. I know there's been some but let's be honest it could be a lot, lot worse. I can't imagine there's much left of the Ukranian AF but from what I've seen on the news I guess their air defences are pretty strong. My fear is that if this drags on too long he'll get inpatient and god knows what will happen then. Doesn't bear thinking about.
As for the ground forces it does seem odd the progress is so slow, I wonder if there's an element of Putin's troops not giving it 100% if you know what I mean, their heart not being in it.

Rich

Good points from both of you.

It is why I do not believe this is a full scale invasion of Ukraine. We can't know either way, but even the word invasion used by the western media and our leaders seems disingenuous.

We all saw the footage of Gulf War 2 where the West bombed Baghdad. Russia are fully capable of doing that to Kyiv, but they haven't. The power is still on and the Ukrainian civilian communications network is still operational, where the Russians don't need it to be for their own military communications.

This appears to be a limited incursion, with very specific targeting and engagements planned, which makes sense, because why would the Russians want to cause great collateral damage to their Ukrainian cousins.

I know we see all the propaganda daily about how well the Ukrainians are doing, but Russia must have air superiority, or largely grounded the Ukrainian Air Force by destroying bases and fuel or the Russian Air Force would be operating above Ukraine to protect their soldiers? On the converse we have Zelensky who is winning the (propaganda?) war giving cardboard guns to civilians and asking women to throw petrol bombs at Russian soldiers only a few days into the campaign.

As I said, we can't know what was going on, but looking at the limited evidence I would not be surprised if Russia achieve the objectives (neutralising Ukrianes military, and seizing the hundreds of billions of dollars of western weapons from them) then fall back to segregate Donetsk and Luhansk at the 'invitation' of their governments.

Or, unfortunately for the Ukrainians, this will get dragged out into an insurgency like Syria with Liz Truss already green lighting UK based mercenaries to go and fight in Ukraine and it will go on for years.

[Rugbyref]

Probably only the Russians themselves can rid this world of Putin.
Cruel, I accept, but Ukraine should gather the papers from dead Russian soldiers and broadcast the names on radio to Russia. Russian mothers of the dead need to galvanise an uprising.

[Col Nago]

This appears to be a limited incursion, with very specific targeting and engagements planned, which makes sense, because why would the Russians want to cause great collateral damage to their Ukrainian cousins.

You're not well.

[colp]

I'm not sure Putin sees them as Ukrainian cousins Craig?!

[Sparts99]

Probably only the Russians themselves can rid this world of Putin.
Cruel, I accept, but Ukraine should gather the papers from dead Russian soldiers and broadcast the names on radio to Russia. Russian mothers of the dead need to galvanise an uprising.

See here

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia- ... 26619.html

[pg1610]

Probably only the Russians themselves can rid this world of Putin.
Cruel, I accept, but Ukraine should gather the papers from dead Russian soldiers and broadcast the names on radio to Russia. Russian mothers of the dead need to galvanise an uprising.

This and other posts of similar vein are all well and good assuming the Russian people think like we do in the west, It has been stated on the TV news channels this morning that all independent (sort of) Russian media has been shut down so the Russian people only see/hear what the state tells them is happening

If the Russian people believe they are at risk they will do what ever it takes to protect the motherland , it is an inbuilt Psyche of the population

the only people who are in a position to do anything about this conflict are the politicians or military commanders who have access to President Putin,

[Craig]

This appears to be a limited incursion, with very specific targeting and engagements planned, which makes sense, because why would the Russians want to cause great collateral damage to their Ukrainian cousins.

You're not well.

Why, because I am thinking about things and looking at the very limited evidence we have coming out of Ukraine and asking questions about it?

I'm not sure Putin sees them as Ukrainian cousins Craig?!

You are probably right, who knows what he really thinks?

As I've already explained in this thread the language and religious ties between a large part of Ukraine and Russia along with historical and likely family ties is massive.

We have shown many times how to win on the battlefield as liberators but lose the hearts and minds of a population as occupiers. Maybe these choices not to destroy Ukraine are tactical.

[NAM Updater]

Why, because I am thinking about things and looking at the very limited evidence we have coming out of Ukraine and asking questions about it?

If you feel that there is "....very limited evidence..." then I politely suggest that you ought to widen your reference sources!

Also, if possible could you please respond to my previous post on page 11, as to what those reference sources actually are; as I assume that you are still not looking at the horrendous scenes being reported/documented on all mainstream media channels. This includes the War Crimes investigations that have already been opened into the invasion of Ukraine!

[XWP29]

As sad as the above news is, I keep reading reports and hearing commentators saying that the general absence of Russian airpower is baffling the experts. Russian ground forces are apparently being held up as they have little air support and Russia apparently is far from having air superiority. The issue not being the resistance they are facing in the sky's, but instead that they are simply not putting anywhere near the required numbers of aircraft over Ukraine. A US retired 4 star General was interviewed on the radio earlier today and he expressed his complete astonishment as to the current air war tactics being used by Russia. Apparently the Nato experts are equaly perplexed. If this is the case, it all seems very strange.

I've been thinking the same. Let's be honest he has the ability to flatten any part of Ukraine he wants, he's done it before in Syria and Grozny. Even though my view is that he's insane maybe he's just trying to be careful not to do too much damage to civilian infrastructure. I know there's been some but let's be honest it could be a lot, lot worse. I can't imagine there's much left of the Ukranian AF but from what I've seen on the news I guess their air defences are pretty strong. My fear is that if this drags on too long he'll get inpatient and god knows what will happen then. Doesn't bear thinking about.
As for the ground forces it does seem odd the progress is so slow, I wonder if there's an element of Putin's troops not giving it 100% if you know what I mean, their heart not being in it.

Rich

Good points from both of you.

It is why I do not believe this is a full scale invasion of Ukraine. We can't know either way, but even the word invasion used by the western media and our leaders seems disingenuous.

We all saw the footage of Gulf War 2 where the West bombed Baghdad. Russia are fully capable of doing that to Kyiv, but they haven't. The power is still on and the Ukrainian civilian communications network is still operational, where the Russians don't need it to be for their own military communications.

This appears to be a limited incursion, with very specific targeting and engagements planned, which makes sense, because why would the Russians want to cause great collateral damage to their Ukrainian cousins.

I know we see all the propaganda daily about how well the Ukrainians are doing, but Russia must have air superiority, or largely grounded the Ukrainian Air Force by destroying bases and fuel or the Russian Air Force would be operating above Ukraine to protect their soldiers? On the converse we have Zelensky who is winning the (propaganda?) war giving cardboard guns to civilians and asking women to throw petrol bombs at Russian soldiers only a few days into the campaign.

As I said, we can't know what was going on, but looking at the limited evidence I would not be surprised if Russia achieve the objectives (neutralising Ukrianes military, and seizing the hundreds of billions of dollars of western weapons from them) then fall back to segregate Donetsk and Luhansk at the 'invitation' of their governments.

Or, unfortunately for the Ukrainians, this will get dragged out into an insurgency like Syria with Liz Truss already green lighting UK based mercenaries to go and fight in Ukraine and it will go on for years.

invade
ĭn-vād′
intransitive verb
To enter by force in order to conquer or pillage.
It’s an invasion!