Sunday Times - F-35 order to be cut by 90

[Gary]

The UK Defence Journal/ Sunday Times reporting the F-35 order will be cut by 90 aircraft to 48

https://www.facebook.com/64092760262062 ... 260465427/

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-repo ... xoCh-CXsv4

The Sunday Times has reported that the UK is likely only to purchase 48 F-35B jets, down from 138.

An excerpt from this article states.

“An order for 90 more F-35 Lightning combat jets is to be cancelled in favour of the Tempest fighter, built in Lancashire, while 24 older Typhoon fighters will be retired early. Whole fleets of aircraft will be taken out of service as drones become ever more common.”

This reported F-35B order isn’t entirely unexpected, whilst speaking to the Public Accounts Committee,the MoD’s Permanent Secretary Sir Stephen Lovegrove said:

“Things change in the course of these very long-term programmes. Different capabilities come along that render things that you have yet to buy possibly obsolete or perhaps you need fewer of them or the threats change.”

The final details of this will be revealed on March the 16th in the Integrated Review.

The ‘Integrated Review’, to give it its full title the ‘Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy’ is effectively a defence review.

According to a Ministry of Defence announcement:

“General Sir Nick Carter has been central to setting the vision for our future armed forces. The Prime Minister has asked General Carter to remain in post to ensure continuity and stability while the conclusions of the Integrated Review are implemented following the £24.1-billion settlement for defence announced last year. 

The Integrated Review will be published on 16 of March and the Defence Command Paper will be published on 22 of March. The selection of General Carter’s successor as Chief of the Defence Staff will begin in the autumn.”

The review was previously described by Boris Johnson as the largest review of its kind since the Cold War and will be published later this month.

[RubyRoo]

138 was overkill in my opinion considering the purchases were due to be over decades, by which point drone technology will have matured significantly to fill in the gaps where manned missions are not required.

Somewhere in the region of 72-96 would have been about the right number to be able to sustain carrier operations and training at home, as well as having attrition/maintenance etc factored in.

Any way you decide to cut it though, 48 is far too little.

[Supra]

Presumably that means the complete order for the UK will be 48 F-35B which will be the primary Carrier contingent? Therefore if the 'rumour' concocted ahead of the official release of the IR by the Times toilet-paper is remotely factual, we have another gap in the land-based force with the assumed cancellation of 90 F-35C? Can the Government really expect the Typhoon to serve for another 20 years? Can they expect that cancellation of this substantial order won't incur the wrath of Lockheed Martin c/w associated financial penalties?
As RubyRoo states, in 20 years time given the exponential rate of the current development of autonomous drone-swarm technology I believe that will render manned combat aircraft redundant. Therefore if we are seriously justifying cancelling the larger F-35? order on that basis, does anybody believe the NOT 100% British Tempest would achieve an 'in-service' date within twenty years from now? "Never in the field of military equipment acquisition has any other Country paid so much for so little"
Personally, I can't move-on from my belief that one F-35B was one to many for the UK!

[TonyO]

UK never actually ordered F-35s beyond the first 48, so no cancellation fees but a lot of face-saving given our Tier 1 partner role in the program. If these outcomes are correct, then this truly is Brexit in action, a smaller air force for a more isolated, insular Britain.

[f-4]

Not sure it's face-saving Tony, more a shuffling of feet of embarrassment!

[Alf]

Presumably that means the complete order for the UK will be 48 F-35B which will be the primary Carrier contingent? Therefore if the 'rumour' concocted ahead of the official release of the IR by the Times toilet-paper is remotely factual, we have another gap in the land-based force with the assumed cancellation of 90 F-35C? Can the Government really expect the Typhoon to serve for another 20 years? Can they expect that cancellation of this substantial order won't incur the wrath of Lockheed Martin c/w associated financial penalties?
As RubyRoo states, in 20 years time given the exponential rate of the current development of autonomous drone-swarm technology I believe that will render manned combat aircraft redundant. Therefore if we are seriously justifying cancelling the larger F-35? order on that basis, does anybody believe the NOT 100% British Tempest would achieve an 'in-service' date within twenty years from now? "Never in the field of military equipment acquisition has any other Country paid so much for so little"
Personally, I can't move-on from my belief that one F-35B was one to many for the UK!

90 x F-35C?.. assumed the additional 90 would either be all F-35B or a mix of F-35B and F-35A.. F-35C seems OTT as our carriers can't use them.

[Finty]

we have another gap in the land-based force with the assumed cancellation of 90 F-35C?

No, Cs haven't been on the agenda since 2012 when the decision was made to revert to the F35B as converting the carriers to CATOBAR was deemed to be prohibitively expensive. Anyway, why would the carrier variant (unusable on the QE class) constitute the 'land based force', you'd go for the A instead?

[TonyO]

we have another gap in the land-based force with the assumed cancellation of 90 F-35C?

No, Cs haven't been on the agenda since 2012 when the decision was made to revert to the F35B as converting the carriers to CATOBAR was deemed to be prohibitively expensive. Anyway, why would the carrier variant (unusable on the QE class) constitute the 'land based force', you'd go for the A instead?

Strangely, the Royal Navy has issued requests for information for catapult and arrestor systems for the QE-class carriers.

[Reach1985]

Seems from recent articles coming out of the US that they are throughly sick of the F-35 too & that the honey moon period - if it ever started - is over. The costs are eye watering - something like close to 2 Trillion dollars over lifetime. Anyway they are (potentially) looking at new F-16/F-15X or something entirely new...

I have to say I’m not sure 48 aircraft is enough to sustain ops but there you go. Out of interest - because I’ve lost track - what is to become of the 2nd carrier?

[Finty]

we have another gap in the land-based force with the assumed cancellation of 90 F-35C?

No, Cs haven't been on the agenda since 2012 when the decision was made to revert to the F35B as converting the carriers to CATOBAR was deemed to be prohibitively expensive. Anyway, why would the carrier variant (unusable on the QE class) constitute the 'land based force', you'd go for the A instead?

Strangely, the Royal Navy has issued requests for information for catapult and arrestor systems for the QE-class carriers.

Blimey. I was going to say it would be ironic if they ended up acquiring an aircraft that the RAF couldn't use, but then I remembered that the RAF could in theory still use the C variant... but with features that would be useless to them.

[Finty]

Seems from recent articles coming out of the US that they are throughly sick of the F-35 too & that the honey moon period - if it ever started - is over. The costs are eye watering - something like close to 2 Trillion dollars over lifetime. Anyway they are (potentially) looking at new F-16/F-15X or something entirely new...

I have to say I’m not sure 48 aircraft is enough to sustain ops but there you go. Out of interest - because I’ve lost track - what is to become of the 2nd carrier?

It's been said before that funding from the F35 will not be diverted to other projects. The F15EX has already flown and 8 are on order with an option for approx 144, to replace the F15C. It isn't really a replacement for the F35, rather it's a less stealthy bomb truck that could also work with unmanned systems and benefits from existing f15 supply chains and competencies. The programme of records for the 3 services haven't changed but the USMC might be the first to reduce their commitment as they're looking at reducing squadron sizes from 16 to 10.

[Phoon]

UK never actually ordered F-35s beyond the first 48, so no cancellation fees but a lot of face-saving given our Tier 1 partner role in the program. If these outcomes are correct, then this truly is Brexit in action, a smaller air force for a more isolated, insular Britain.

Absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, it's the cost of a Pandemic biting in areas where the government is likely to get the least flack from the general public.

[Phoon]

Presumably that means the complete order for the UK will be 48 F-35B which will be the primary Carrier contingent? Therefore if the 'rumour' concocted ahead of the official release of the IR by the Times toilet-paper is remotely factual, we have another gap in the land-based force with the assumed cancellation of 90 F-35C? Can the Government really expect the Typhoon to serve for another 20 years? Can they expect that cancellation of this substantial order won't incur the wrath of Lockheed Martin c/w associated financial penalties?
As RubyRoo states, in 20 years time given the exponential rate of the current development of autonomous drone-swarm technology I believe that will render manned combat aircraft redundant. Therefore if we are seriously justifying cancelling the larger F-35? order on that basis, does anybody believe the NOT 100% British Tempest would achieve an 'in-service' date within twenty years from now? "Never in the field of military equipment acquisition has any other Country paid so much for so little"
Personally, I can't move-on from my belief that one F-35B was one to many for the UK!

The Typhoon's OSD is scheduled to be 2040, so yes they most likely will have to last almost 20 years.

[Agent K]

UK never actually ordered F-35s beyond the first 48, so no cancellation fees but a lot of face-saving given our Tier 1 partner role in the program. If these outcomes are correct, then this truly is Brexit in action, a smaller air force for a more isolated, insular Britain.

Absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, it's the cost of a Pandemic biting in areas where the government is likely to get the least flack from the general public.

Oh I think you'll find both factors will have an impact on spend. You cant spend £billions on some cult and lose £billions on it to an already reduced economy without it having an impact.

[warthog81]

If it had been up to me I would have gone for F-35A from the very start, no F-35B and no carriers.

[Reach1985]

If it had been up to me I would have gone for F-35A from the very start, no F-35B and no carriers.

Absolutely.

& I suppose there is a bigger question like did we even need F-35? Or could that role not have been adequately filled by additional Typhoon FGR4 until a replacement - Tempest? - is found? Or even off the shelf F-18 et al.

But these questions stem from larger existential questions that the UK faces about our posture on the world stage & how we see ourselves not just currently but in the future. I don’t honestly think there is a clear view of that - gosh if there had been it’s highly unlikely Bexit would have happened.

In terms of defence the reality check seems to come too late & before you know it you’ve spanked countless billions on 2 aircraft carriers (you have to wonder at what point someone thought 2 was justified) & then you can’t put up the cash to put anything much on them... other than USMC jets!!

In fact the UK’s defence spending/planning/delivery over the past 20+ years is a fairly good methaphor - or at least a pretty good barometer of the health of the wider nation : terminally ill.

[TonyO]

UK never actually ordered F-35s beyond the first 48, so no cancellation fees but a lot of face-saving given our Tier 1 partner role in the program. If these outcomes are correct, then this truly is Brexit in action, a smaller air force for a more isolated, insular Britain.

Absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, it's the cost of a Pandemic biting in areas where the government is likely to get the least flack from the general public.

The Integrated Review defines the UK's future foreign policy post Brexit, any changes that are being announced reflect our new place in the world. This is not COVID-related.

[Phoon]

UK never actually ordered F-35s beyond the first 48, so no cancellation fees but a lot of face-saving given our Tier 1 partner role in the program. If these outcomes are correct, then this truly is Brexit in action, a smaller air force for a more isolated, insular Britain.

Absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, it's the cost of a Pandemic biting in areas where the government is likely to get the least flack from the general public.

The Integrated Review defines the UK's future foreign policy post Brexit, any changes that are being announced reflect our new place in the world. This is not COVID-related.

Of course it's COVID related, that's why it's been so heavily delayed The bottom line of the SDR is saving money, whichever way it's glossed up. The country has increased an already sizable debt due to the pandemic, savings have to be made. And it's likely to be drastic, leaving us short and with ever finely stretched on many capabilities. Cuts to the F35/withdrawal of the remaining Tranche 1 Typhoons, entire Puma and C130 fleets not unexpected.

[TonyO]

Absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, it's the cost of a Pandemic biting in areas where the government is likely to get the least flack from the general public.

The Integrated Review defines the UK's future foreign policy post Brexit, any changes that are being announced reflect our new place in the world. This is not COVID-related.

Of course it's COVID related, that's why it's been so heavily delayed The bottom line of the SDR is saving money, whichever way it's glossed up. The country has increased an already sizable debt due to the pandemic, savings have to be made. And it's likely to be drastic, leaving us short and with ever finely stretched on many capabilities. Cuts to the F35/withdrawal of the remaining Tranche 1 Typhoons, entire Puma and C130 fleets not unexpected.

The government added £24 billion to the defence budget over four years last October, and the review itself was launched before the COVID crisis was declared a pandemic. The reason cuts are coming is because the Generals/Air Marshals and Admirals have not been spending wisely, with a black hole in the finances that is billions deep.

[Finty]

If it had been up to me I would have gone for F-35A from the very start, no F-35B and no carriers.

Absolutely.

& I suppose there is a bigger question like did we even need F-35? Or could that role not have been adequately filled by additional Typhoon FGR4 until a replacement - Tempest? - is found? Or even off the shelf F-18 et al.

But these questions stem from larger existential questions that the UK faces about our posture on the world stage & how we see ourselves not just currently but in the future. I don’t honestly think there is a clear view of that - gosh if there had been it’s highly unlikely Bexit would have happened.

In terms of defence the reality check seems to come too late & before you know it you’ve spanked countless billions on 2 aircraft carriers (you have to wonder at what point someone thought 2 was justified) & then you can’t put up the cash to put anything much on them... other than USMC jets!!

In fact the UK’s defence spending/planning/delivery over the past 20+ years is a fairly good methaphor - or at least a pretty good barometer of the health of the wider nation : terminally ill.

It's an interesting discussion. As I see it, we've already got fixed aircraft carriers in a way that are close to overseas theatres (Akrotiri and Diego Garcia) but we'll now have the ability to project power even more widely with movable carriers. If whatever air power tools we've got can successfully respond to high end (Russia, China) and low end threats (insurgents) then it'll have done its job but of course their success will have to be judged.