Defence Review Overview

[raptor9]

Once again I will ask where you expect all the money to come from??. Russia cannot possibly win a conventional war against the NATO Alliance, which only gives him the nuclear option, which he would dare not use. We simply cannot afford what you wish for.

[iainpeden]

which only gives him the nuclear option, which he would dare not use.

We hope; the danger of backing the rat into a corner is that he lashes out with everything. Putin needs to be got rid of ASAP but when the oligarchs and likes of the Wagner group really turn against him will he be of a mind to take us all down with him?

We can’t afford to increase our armed forces because of political incompetence and long term apathy.
I bet we’re have not got around to issuing contracts to replace the armaments sent to Ukraine.
If we don’t stand up to Putin, Moldova will be next.
Even if we support a settlement where the Dnieper becomes the border the bully has succeeded and the next dictator will be encouraged.

I can’t see a straightforward way out of this, ironically because that concept of MAD which kept the peace for 40 years is now stopping us going in and giving the bully a much needed bleeding nose.

[TomG]

How come when almost unlimited emergency funds had to be found from somewhere to deal with covid, the Govt somehow found them, able to pay furlough to working people amongst other things must have cost multiple billions. But the money was found, because it was needed.

But now, with a war in Europe because of an aggressive Russia, more aggressive even than it was in the Cold War decades, the government doesn’t seem to have any appetite to increase defence spending, or rather hardware procurement in any real terms. I don’t understand, with the terrible situation in Ukraine, not to mention an increasingly hostile China, why we are not finding the emergency funds to buy more fast jets and transports to defend/deter in a time as dangerous as the Cuban missile crisis, not to mention inviting more USAF squadrons to be based here. Why is that? They found billions for covid, and still billions for foreign aid, yet expanding the RAF doesn’t seem to be even under consideration. Is Russia not really seen as serious a threat as it was when we had about thirty fast jet squadrons in the 80s?

Assuming that we did have the money and the will to purchase this additional hardware, where are we getting the personnel to operate them from and how quickly could we train them? It isn't going to happen as we simply don't have the available people and certainly don't have the training system to allow us to bring additional crews/groundcrew on board.

[C24]

Even if the Country was wealthy enough to finance expansion of the military, I doubt that there would be a rush of FC members to volunteer for active service in any of the Defence services.
Evidence of historical MOD procurement shows poor selection of equipment delivered late and showing availability gaps. We would be better to borrow kit from the US and act as mercenaries.

If this country was an individual looking to replace a motor vehicle he/she would purchase from a dealer not try making one from scratch. Also, a mini not a rolls would be the better option.

Scroll through this site

https://www.forces.net/ukraine/uk-could ... -two-years

https://www.forces.net/nato/pm-talks-be ... MAIL_ID%5D

[SingleSpey]

If this country was an individual looking to replace a motor vehicle he/she would purchase from a dealer not try making one from scratch. Also, a mini not a rolls would be the better option.

The problem with this approach is that you end up the dealers interpretation of your requirements, and eventually the dealer that offers the cheapest product will win out over the dealer providing the best quality when customers don’t have much cash.

I think that competition between manufacturers, and countries developing their own doctrine and requirements, is the only way to push forward with new ideas in military matters.

[PitchAxis]

How come when almost unlimited emergency funds had to be found from somewhere to deal with covid, the Govt somehow found them, able to pay furlough to working people amongst other things must have cost multiple billions. But the money was found, because it was needed.

But now, with a war in Europe because of an aggressive Russia, more aggressive even than it was in the Cold War decades, the government doesn’t seem to have any appetite to increase defence spending, or rather hardware procurement in any real terms. I don’t understand, with the terrible situation in Ukraine, not to mention an increasingly hostile China, why we are not finding the emergency funds to buy more fast jets and transports to defend/deter in a time as dangerous as the Cuban missile crisis, not to mention inviting more USAF squadrons to be based here. Why is that? They found billions for covid, and still billions for foreign aid, yet expanding the RAF doesn’t seem to be even under consideration. Is Russia not really seen as serious a threat as it was when we had about thirty fast jet squadrons in the 80s?

There had been an worldwide economic bull run since the 2009 financial crisis. We were able to fund the Covid measures but these had real consequences (inflation) which we are paying for now. It's highly likely that we cannot fund this spend.

If the govt did fund a massive equipment increase, then there is a long lead time for that (purchases, infrastructure, people). It could be that we are having difficulty keeping up with replacing the weapons donated to Ukraine let alone expanding UK armed forces.

[C24]

This is useful to see the picture discussed above.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... nt-inquiry

It would seem that most of the current contracts are in dollars which means that as the exchange rate drops …

MOD do not have the commercial experience to operate in the procurement world. Boeing seems to hold us to ransom as they are better business people.

All three individuals involved in this session comment that the whole situation is improving. They are almost certainly very competent are military men but I would not trust them to use my money to buy a week’s groceries at the best prices.

Every gap in our capabilities has been justified according to the MOD personnel. Fudge

Edited
An alternative link. https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Ind ... 6539190526

Edited again
Try this site: https://committees.parliament.uk/work/6 ... ocurement/

Also 5 helicopters purchased and immediately mothballed? Politically sensitive decision.

[Canberra TT.18]

Up to 44 new helicopter could be bought

The active words here are 'up to'. The number will be decided when they understand the costs from the bid and negotiation process with the remainder to be taken up as attrition replacements as and when the need (and funding) arises.

Well not up to 44 anymore by the looks of it.
6 H145 for SAR and support tasks in Brunei and Cyprus.

https://www.scramble.nl/military-news/p ... 5s-for-raf

https://www.flightglobal.com/helicopter ... 77.article

Might make sense as the NMH contenders are larger helicopters then the B212, Griffin and Dauphins which should be replaced by the NMH.
The Puma is a different story.

[Canberra TT.18]

https://www.flightglobal.com/helicopter ... 96.article

Reduction in numbers of NMH to be acquired to 23-32 from 44.

Flight Global:
In February this year, the MoD published its long-awaited invitation to negotiate (ITN) document which laid out the exact requirements for the procurement, including quantity, pricing and aircraft specifications.

Although there had been hints last year that the number of helicopters being sought had fallen to the 25-35 range, the ITN now calls for between 23 and 32 airframes, according to people familiar with the document.

Prior to the release of the ITN, 32 was seen as the most likely total given the MoD’s ambition for the NMH platform to replace multiple types in the UK’s inventory.

At the outset of the programme, this included the Royal Air Force’s 23-strong fleet of Puma HC2 transports, alongside Bell 212s and 412s operated in Brunei and Cyprus, plus the Airbus Helicopters AS365 N2 Dauphins flown by the Army Air Corps’ (AAC’s) 658 Squadron in support of domestic counter-terrorism missions conducted by special forces.

However, on 18 April, the MoD confirmed a contract with Airbus Helicopters – first disclosed last November – to supply six H145s for the Brunei and Cyprus missions that are currently being backfilled with Pumas.

The removal of those aircraft from the remit of NMH – justified by the MoD on cost grounds – is clearly the main reason for the smaller buy.

The ITN offers no guidance on quantities beyond the range outlined; bidders are free to offer the total number of aircraft they think is appropriate and will then be scored accordingly.