Post
by hertsman » Wed Feb 01, 2012 12:50 pm
There's still some hard negotiations to be concluded with the Indians before ink hits paper, and the French have a recent history of messing this bit up (Brazil, UAE). After getting through manufacturing negotiations and then final pricing, the whole thing goes to the Finance ministry, then lastly the Indian cabinet for actual sign-off.
While this doesn't mean the EF stands much chance of recovering now, it does mean the door is not yet closed on the whole thing being deferred, re-bid or cancelled entirely. It is a very costly deal that could yet fall prey to a cheaper deal from Russia, or, perversely, an even a more expensive one from the US if the Americans can get over technology transfer issues.
But the Rafale looks to be a very good bit of kit, and I would not be heart-broken to hear that it was to be acquired for the Navy carriers.
As to long term fighter production in the UK, well that's a tough one. Our equipment requirements are way too small to make go-it-alone projects anything more than a pipe dream. If you aren't manufacturing in industrial quantities, you are rolling a stone uphill I'm afraid. Collaborative projects are the only real option, messy and unsatisfactory as they are.
But collaborating on what? EF 5th generation? Rafale 5th generation? Taranis/Neuron development? Carrier- capable, strike UAV? A10 replacement/Light CAS? (Could be the lowest cost and risk option with real export potential from developing countries). But Europe is in a financial mess worse than the UK so I don't hear many calls for such projects at the moment.
It's possible that the UK's best bet is not combat aircraft manufacturing at all, but knowledge and skills based design and manufacture of specialist electronic elements and components to equip combat fighters, missiles, UAV's, ships, surveillance and sensor systems and the like. This is not an empty sector, the Israeli's are specialists in these types of systems for example, so you have to be world-class to stand a chance. 'Very good' won't be good enough.
hertsman