Will Sunak Survive Until The Election

[Gary]

It appears not only are the Tories currently looking at massive defeat at the election, predictions as it stands say it could be close to the 1997 result. The Tories are edging closer to a civil war in their party. Sky reporting the no confidence letters have started. We could potentially have another year of the comedy show too

'Several' letters of no confidence in Sunak submitted yesterday - Tory rebel source

Despite the prime minister's victory yesterday in staving off a rebellion and getting his Rwanda bill through the Commons, it appears the rebels have not all been appeased.

A rebel source has told our political editor Beth Rigby that "several" letters of no confidence were submitted last night.

The total number of letters having been submitted at any one time remains confidential until the threshold triggering a leadership contest is crossed.

It requires 15% of the parliamentary party to submit a letter for a leadership contest to be triggered - which equates to 53 letters.

Rishi Sunak suffered the biggest rebellions of his premiership over the last two days, peaking at 67 of his own MPs backing an amendment last night that would have blocked late-night injunctions from the European Court of Human Rights stopping Rwanda flights taking off.

He is set to deliver a news conference after 10am in Downing Street, and we'll have live coverage here in the Politics Hub and across Sky News.

https://news.sky.com/story/politics-lat ... s-12593360

I'm an undecided / swing voter as it stands no party have do anything to come close to getting my vote. I can see why Reform UK are getting moment though. Are they a fad like UKIP though?

So can Sunak survive?

[steamy]

spent more time fighting among themselves than running the country

[Sparts99]

As ever the most important thing to the Conservative Party is the Conservative Party, that's why we had the referendum, Cameron wanting to appease potential defectors to UKIP. His arrogance in the leading and running the remain campaign is why it failed. Again the right of the party are setting the narrative to retain the party's existence against the likes of Farage, meanwhile the wheels are coming off all over the place up and down the country. Starmer is a huge let down, he's had open goal after open goal but failed to score. If he showed some real leadership and commitment to principles, any principles, we might be able to have a meaningful debate about the future of the UK and the best course of action. The tories aren't being held to account, they have no principles either. The tories need to go, no two ways about it, but because we have first past the post there's little alternative.

[baz1]

none of them will get my vote just looked at them on PMQ yesterday on TV like a load of school kids just Haggling all the time.

[slogen51]

Ultimately we are the ones who hold the Government to account

Kick them out this Autumn

[Sparts99]

none of them will get my vote just looked at them on PMQ yesterday on TV like a load of school kids just Haggling all the time.

It is worth voting, even if for a mionority party that appears to have no chance. When the votes are totalled up at the end of the election there's a fund, quite a big one that is allocated to the political parties based on its share of the vote, so if you don't want either of the two main parties by voting for a different one you're denying them funds and diverting it to an alternative. Individually not much, but collectively it can mkae a difference and send a message to the the main parties, they look at this kind of thing as well as polls.

[iainpeden]

The short answer is yes. If it gets to the point where a vote of confidence is held and he loses he will go to the palace and ask KC3 to dissolve parliament. If he wins the election he gives his opponents the middle finger, if he loses he books a private jet to California and gets a mega salary with an AI company.

What is less clear is the impact of boundary changes on the final make up of the Commons. (Following figures are approximate) the Blair landslide took a 10% swing ( the record) , to become the largest party Labour need 9%, to have an overall majority Stamer will need nearly a 13% swing.

[Sparts99]

"What is less clear is the impact of boundary changes on the final make up of the Commons. " I heard a report on R4 (I think) that said the boundary changes will reduce the Labour vote.

[slogen51]

Labour will almost certainly pick up lots of Scottish seats especially since the SNP have taken a leaf out of the conservative's book of Good Governance!

[Philly1971]

The tories are imploding and it couldn’t happen to a better bunch! I will have to put on some kind of girdle for the election just to stop my sides from splitting with laughter seeing their horrendous demise .

[raptor9]

Be careful what you wish for!!. To trust the Labour party with the economy will be disastrous, as has been proved in the past. The present Government is in a difficult position of course, but when/if Starmer wins, he will be pleased as punch, but I bet a year later, when he can't fulfill his pledges, he will wish he hadn't. There are very good reasons as to why the economy is in a bad position, and for Starmer to think he can cure it with all his fanciful plans is smoke and mirrors. He will probably end up being worse than what we have now. Remember, this Government is the one that paid you for being off work through the pandemic, dealt well [in my opinion] with Covid, and is trying it's best to deal with immigration. They have been dealt a bad hand in the last four years, and will hopefully do better in next year.

[Philly1971]

Oh I have no doubts that Labour will be a disaster. If we get through one term and they don’t bankrupt the country it will be a surprise. However, just blindly wanting the conservatives to remain in power forever, no matter how bad they are turns the country into a virtual dictatorship. They need a message that they need to change, and only a serious beating and period in the opposition will cause that to happen. As with any government they do some things I think is ok, and other things not. However, I have never trusted the Conservatives mostly because of the way they are funded, by big business and rich individuals. It then comes as no shock that they do things that just help big business and rich individuals, like handing out contracts during covid directly to a business they have personal links to, which I suspect they do all the time. So much for looking after the taxpayer, I think we can all guess who they really look after. It’s also why I have never trusted them on immigration. Big business wants cheap and plentiful labour, and so I can’t ever see the conservatives actually doing anything real about immigration as long as their rich business paymasters want to keep the minimum wage as low as they can get. One area you do look to improve under the Tories is defence, as I don’t think many trust Labour on that front, but then again, after years of conservative government can we really say our armed forces are well equipped and in good shape? What about the health service, or education, or roads, or public transport, or infrastructure, any of those better? I am no expert on all, but as someone who commutes, has friends who are teachers, drives a car, and finally has a wife who is sadly a major user of the health service, I would have to say a big fat no.

[Red-Eye-Knight]

None of them can be trusted from any party be that Conservative or Labour or any of the rest of them.

[raptor9]

But wages are rising, N.H.S. waiting lists are coming down, inflation is reducing, interest rates are now steady and likely to be reducing..... no, it's not all rosy, but to listen to Starmer on T.V. one would think that the streets will be paved with gold with his fanciful and UNCOSTED plans. Stick with what we've got, or you will regret it!!. As you say, Starmer will bankrupt the country almost certainly to a far worse state than it is now, so how on earth can things then improve?

[James Cutting]

Because the economy is FLOURISHING under the wonderful Tories isn't it Raptor? Wages are hardly on the rise. Waiting lists are on the decline because a lot of people are being pushed to Private (by the NHS). Hospitals are being held up by scaffolding (those that have managed not to collapse in places). Inflation is still stupidly high and well it may be reducing but it is still inflating. How expensive is the Rwanda Bill going to be then too? Or will they get one of their mates to fund it like the PPE contracts??

No, Labour won't be the best, nor would the far right wing "reform UK" however - whatever the outcome is, we cannot keep having several unelected Prime Ministers.

[XWP29]

I think Mr. Sunak is a genuine, privileged individual, who history will show as the 3rd PM at the end of a very troubled conservative government. He will survive until the Election as if there is another change in PM it would probably lead to GE anyway.

For those of us with long memories scandals have been present in both the main parties in government so any one thinking it is going to magically end they may want to look at this list:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_p ... ed_Kingdom

Sir K Starmer has clamped down the Labour Party for now and suppressed Tribune to appear electable. Labour will have a term or two in government tinker and spend to change things and some things will work and others fail then probably the whole cycle will start around again.

Until the two parties stop the Punch and Judy show in the commons and identify some common ground that supports and develops the basic functions the whole electorate need without the lurching in one direction or the other, we are doomed to this ongoing pantomime.

[raptor9]

Who said the economy was flourishing James?? It was your word, not mine. Certainly it is not, but it could be a lot worse.

[Col Nago]

One area you do look to improve under the Tories is defence, as I don’t think many trust Labour on that front, but then again, after years of conservative government can we really say our armed forces are well equipped and in good shape?

Defence spending between 1997 and 2024 has averaged 2.4% GDP. At its height it was 2.7% (under Labour) until it was taken down to 2.1% between 2015 and 2019 by the Tories. It went from a peak 5.5% (in 1984 for obvious reasons) to 2.7% then handed over to Labour.

I'm in the telecoms business, my wife runs her own company, my best mates range from a CEO in the food industry to high level UK corporate lawyers and one is even a European corporate lawyer - we all agree that Brexit and the subsequent years have been an unmitigated disaster for the UK economy. Blaming some of it on COVID is a cop out. The rest of the First World is up to speed again, or almost up to speed - but were languishing about like idiots.

Myself and my friends have never and will never vote Tory.

[James Cutting]

Who said the economy was flourishing James?? It was your word, not mine. Certainly it is not, but it could be a lot worse.

Your constant "Labour will bankrupt the country" comments, which they won't. Like the debt has got better under the Tories.

[RubyRoo]

The Conservatives have failed under almost every single metric going since they assumed overall power in 2015, with the mixed-bag from 2010-15 being terrible for many under austerity.

Those decreeing "Labour will bankrupt the country!" or "Labour can't be trusted!" need to actually sit and read the official OBR, IMF and BoE statements. This country has become demonstrably poorer with costs sky rocketing.

The Ukraine war and pandemic have of course played a factor, but comparatively, the United Kingdom lags behind every other country in the EU and this lays firmly at the fault of the Conservatives. If Labour is still the focus of people's ire, there is no hope for you. This is not to say Labour are perfect, because they are not. What the Conservatives have done has been criminal and history will not look kindly on any of them from this period.