The Ukraine Situation

[Rhubarb]

Hi All,
I don't know if you have noticed, but the cold war appears to be back ! Some better informed than myself may say it's never gone away ! Apparently it's all about Russia wanting a written guarantee that no more eastern block European Countries will apply to join NATO or so I am led to believe from the BBC. The Ukrainian people seam to be a little on the fence about joining it seems to me, from the few citizen interviews I have seen. We have been shown only pictures of a few civilian reservists running around in the woods so far. Rhetoric of "they will meet a darn resistance" has been said by the Ukraine government but Russia has 100,000 soldiers on the Belarusian and Ukrainian borders claim the BBC. The BBC shows a picture of one Mig 29 taking off from somewhere. Goole research claims Russia has 650 Mig 29 but only 450 perhaps serviceable ? We may be able scrape together 130 serviceable T1 &2 Typhoons, about 30 t1&2 Hawks, 10 F35b 's at best ! So without The Ammerican air Forces in Europe we would be struggling on our own. Of course we can rely on the French to jump in ? With the Spanish, Italians, Germans, Belgieans, Swedish and Norwegians. Appologys for anybody I have missed ! But I fail to see what the Ukraine can do to stop a lightning Russian Invasion that I believe that Putin is hell bent on, to seal his name in Russian Histrory! Back in 1940 I would probably be arrested by Chief Superintendent Foyle for writing this at all ! Do members think we should discuss such situations or not ? Something far worse than Covid may be approaching from the East I fear !

[Vulture 01]

Judging by the lack of replies, Rhubarb, I'd say other members are not really that interested.
It seems to me that most Western politicians lack a long term vision, whilst Russia, and especially China, look decades ahead and plan accordingly. That they have heavy media restrictions
undoubtedly helps them conceal a lot.

Western Europe has gone all out to ditch most of it's own energy producing facilities, and now buys gas from Russia. Smart move - as soon as you don't toe the line all the lights go out. What value green energy now? If nothing else perhaps we might learn from this, although I doubt it. We have decades worth of natural gas both onshore, and in the North Sea, yet lack the motivation to exploit it, as it's not 'Green'. We may not all be green, but a lot will go blue with hypothermia if we get a cold snap like 2018 and Putin turns the taps off.

Ukraine is an important issue, as the way we in the west react will heavily influence Russian and Chinese policy from here on in.

In passing, I'd suggest that, when visiting military bases over the next few weeks, members take care and do nothing to distract our armed forces from the job in hand. That applies doubly around American facilities. Hopefully common sense will prevail and governments will realise that jaw-jaw is better than war-war.

I know that some will agree and many may not. That's democracy which we seem to value so little these days.

[C24]

Lack of response could be partially due to people still in bed; eating breakfast and/or on the way to work.

You raise many valid points🛰

[Alf]

Hi All,
I don't know if you have noticed, but the cold war appears to be back ! Some better informed than myself may say it's never gone away ! Apparently it's all about Russia wanting a written guarantee that no more eastern block European Countries will apply to join NATO or so I am led to believe from the BBC. The Ukrainian people seam to be a little on the fence about joining it seems to me, from the few citizen interviews I have seen. We have been shown only pictures of a few civilian reservists running around in the woods so far. Rhetoric of "they will meet a darn resistance" has been said by the Ukraine government but Russia has 100,000 soldiers on the Belarusian and Ukrainian borders claim the BBC. The BBC shows a picture of one Mig 29 taking off from somewhere. Goole research claims Russia has 650 Mig 29 but only 450 perhaps serviceable ? We may be able scrape together 130 serviceable T1 &2 Typhoons, about 30 t1&2 Hawks, 10 F35b 's at best ! So without The Ammerican air Forces in Europe we would be struggling on our own. Of course we can rely on the French to jump in ? With the Spanish, Italians, Germans, Belgieans, Swedish and Norwegians. Appologys for anybody I have missed ! But I fail to see what the Ukraine can do to stop a lightning Russian Invasion that I believe that Putin is hell bent on, to seal his name in Russian Histrory! Back in 1940 I would probably be arrested by Chief Superintendent Foyle for writing this at all ! Do members think we should discuss such situations or not ? Something far worse than Covid may be approaching from the East I fear !

Can't see any issues discussing it on here given its on the BBC News and CNN 247x7 at the moment. Also, should anything arrive into Fairford you can guarantee it will probably be shown live on TV too.

[Sparts99]

Putin is master of playing games of brinkmanship. If he invades and the US and global community apply the sanctions they say they are going to Russia therefore Putin is in big trouble, the issue then is how Putin reacts. Remember Ukraine is not in NATO, we have no obligation to to actively get involved, and I believe it would be a mistake to do so as the conflict would escalate rapidly and hugely. There isn't sufficient unity within Europe (remember our flights supplying anti tank missiles had to dog leg across Europe as some governments wouldn't allow the overflights) to say other countries would commit troops and hardware, and by the time they did it'd all be over anyway. With the number of boots on the ground Russia is ready to use it'll be a quick campaign, no matter how spirited the resistance from within Ukraine.

[Canberra TT.18]

I think the situation is very serious.
Not only towards Ukraine but also threatening neutral countries as Sweden and Finland. Is a serious threat the stability in Europe. The Russian leader(s) really lives in an parallel universe, running some 80 years behind our time..
And whatever the Russians do and the rest of Europea & USA reacts will have big implications for the (near) future of Europe.
Thing is is that after the annexation of Crimea the Russian think they can get away with everything.
Not the right reaction and also China think they can take Taiwan. (sidestep)

Its is not the number of aircraft or any other weapon. It is the question do we want to use them...

The only reason I see is that these dictators (yes they are) in Russia, China Belarus fear is democracy and ther own people. So every possible Democracy on there doorstep should be anyalated.

[Agent K]

We may be able scrape together 130 serviceable T1 &2 Typhoons, about 30 t1&2 Hawks, 10 F35b 's at best !

I'd suggest the number of Typhoons would be lower, Hawks are not combat capable so I'd leave those out of the equation, and perhaps a few more F-35B.

[Canberra TT.18]

Remember Ukraine is not in NATO, we have no obligation to to actively get involved, and I believe it would be a mistake to do so as the conflict would escalate rapidly and hugely.

This was no reason 30 years ago to liberated Kuwait.
This was no reason 80 years ago for the USA Canada en England to liberated Europe.

If a countrie is occupied by foreign troops. The free world has every obligation to liberated it's people member of Nato or not. (Just my opinion )

[steamy]

Budapest 1994 Agreement

All very interesting all the same, makes for great spotting

[Snoop55]

I'd agree to all the points made above and it is very serious. Not that I think it would result in nukes being lobbed around however.

It is quite interesting the current geopolitical situation.

Kissinger mentions in his book about China is what they feared was strategic encirclement. One could relate that to a degree to the current Russian situation. However I think is recent Russian/China contacts there is an underlying agreement to stretch the United States which has obligations to the Pacific and Europe (and to a lesser degree elsewhere). Back in the early 1970's the Nixon/China agreements stretched the Russians likewise.

As regards Europe my view is we have had decades of mismanagement to it's defence. I'm not only talking about the UK but also the rest of Europe. Defence spending bar the odd country is less than 2% GDP and the historic mindset of appeasement being another (Crimea being just one example the russians feel they have got away with - Not to mention the disgusting poisonings in the UK). A point to add here is I'm no Trump fan but as regards making NATO countries pay their dues he is being proved right.

Sadly, and I hope I am wrong, my belief is Ukraine is going to be invaded. If that happens the options are to help the Ukranians fight and also apply a complete embargo (All goods and Financial) of Russia. It does make me wonder how the Germans are going to come on board should gas supplies be switched off?

What is being proved here is for all Democracies to work as one and to temper the liberal attitude which does not work with power crazed leaders - remember "In order for evil to succeed all it requires is for good people to do nothing".

As regards any shooting war if any current NATO country is attacked then article 5 will be invoked end of... My guess it will not come to this....

Would be interesting for others thoughts.

[plmc135]

Should this thread not be in the General Chat section.

[Alf]

Should this thread not be in the General Chat section.

As it may go on for a while it could have its own section.

[cat1]

could i advise that members watch this video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMxqTae75Fs
it proves Russia's government is actually less stable than it seems.

just personal opinion....

[benno]

This is very serious. Russia have and are mobilising a huge amount of army and navy assets for their various "exercises" for a long time....

The Obvious;

It must be costing them a fortune! So, is the financial return going to be control of the gas pipelines in the Ukraine? Is Putin gambling on a short and forceful regime change in Ukraine (Minimal loss and quick withdrawal)? Or, is he wanting to really test his military and the political resolve of "the west"?

The not so obvious at the moment;

Turkey. What deals are being made with Erdogan?

[toom317]

...en England to liberated Europe.

Did the Scots, Irish and Welsh just sit on their arses back in WWII, or GW1?

[Canberra TT.18]

...en England to liberated Europe.

Did the Scots, Irish and Welsh just sit on their arses back in WWII, or GW1?

Sorry
Stupid Dutch way of calling Britain England.
Should have mentioned all Allies!

[C24]

Should this thread not be in the General Chat section.

Good point; into General Chat would make it easier to follow and not clog up this section.

Canberra. We call the Nederlands Holland Beste wensen

[Kurnass]

It seems 4 Apaches and 6 Chinooks will be send to Estonia. An unknown number of Typhoons to Cyprus.

[cat1]

a friend of mine thinks that this is a test of Biden's mettle?
I also have heard that some thing Putin is trying to recreate the USSR....

[Kurnass]

a friend of mine thinks that this is a test of Biden's mettle?
I also have heard that some thing Putin is trying to recreate the USSR....

Putin has his eyes on Belarus to create a union. But so far Lukasjenko doesn’t want to give up his power in favor of Putin.