The Ukraine Situation

[roger4]

Most of the Hawk T.1, Tornado GR4s etc have been reduced to produce (aka scrapped) so there is no chance of getting them donated to Ukraine. The only realistic prospect for which there are large numbers of intact airframes that could be diverted in the next few months are F-16s.

I think people/press/certain politicians get confused between what could be given to Ukraine immediately (essentially nothing that they could use in the short term, in part because the conversion training of pilots is only one cog in the wheel, with training of maintenance crews and the logistics of supplies of spares would be critical) verses what could be given in 2-3 years time once the current war is over.

[mustang5861]

Tucked up in bed last night, I listened to Tobias Ellwood MP claim that the short-term answer to the Ukrainians' need for aircraft is the 60-odd mothballed ex-RAF 'Super Tucanos' because they can carry and launch a wide range of air-to-air and air-to-surface missiles as well as laser-guided bombs. I nearly choked on my cocoa and digestives!

It's rather worrying that this drivel came from the mouth of the Chairman of the Defence Select Committee no less - proof (if ever it were needed) that most MPs know all about the subject matter they choose to spout on about...

[Blackcat1]

Tucked up in bed last night, I listened to Tobias Ellwood MP claim that the short-term answer to the Ukrainians' need for aircraft is the 60-odd mothballed ex-RAF 'Super Tucanos' because they can carry and launch a wide range of air-to-air and air-to-surface missiles as well as laser-guided bombs. I nearly choked on my cocoa and digestives!

It's rather worrying that this drivel came from the mouth of the Chairman of the Defence Select Committee no less - proof (if ever it were needed) that most MPs know all about the subject matter they choose to spout on about...

I notice I'm saying FFS a lot these days!! You just couldn't make it up!!

[slogen51]

What happened to the 70+ Ukrainian SU-27 ? Have they all been shot down

For a country the size of Ukraine with a russian border they did have a comparatively small fleet of fast jets to start with even before war broke out.

[seven]

They never had that many airworthy at one time, let alone battle worthy. Plus of course there would have been strikes on known airfields which would have accounted for losses, before the SAM and A2A engagements took place. Whilst there would most likely have been attrition replacements from the stored airframes, again it'll be no where near that number.
Also remember MiG-29s are also being used in the A2A role, and are more numerous than the Flankers.
Plus, with the capabilities of the S300 and S400 systems, and MiG-31 and Su-35s over the border, there's not much point in wasting airframes on CAP close to the front line.

[C24]

In a recent television report an expert stated that Russia has sufficient artillery shells in store to allow them to use at the current rate for two years. Also that their production rate has been increased to maintain a high reserve.
The Western industry cannot replace their reserves at anywhere a similar rate.

[steamy]

Link? as Wagner were just saying a different story earlier

[C24]

Link? as Wagner were just saying a different story earlier

No link available as it was a television news item. Forces net has a short video of Scranton ammo factory in US.

[Tally-ho]

Activists daubed a giant Ukrainian flag on the road outside the Russian embassy in London on Thursday 23 Feb, to mark the anniversary of the Russian invasion.
Short 25sec video link below:-

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/video/uk ... 78760ac842

Human ingenuity in driving home a powerful message of resistance.

[Col Nago]

Water based and washable paint, crew in hi-viz / PPE, clear warning signs for traffic – that’s an H&S box ticking protest right there. Well done all.

I see in Berlin they've dumped a knocked out Russian tank in front of the Russian embassy, and in the Netherlands they've left a really annoying pipe organ outside. Outside the Russian embassy in Warsaw they're blasting the sound of air raid sirens and explosions from a PA.

[Col Nago]

CNN I wouldn't believe a word they say. Also it's not like ww1 or ww2 it takes more than a few hours or weeks to fly aircraft these days. And who will maintain them so you need to train groundcrew as well. Never going to happen.

This hasn’t aged well.

[65thAgressor]

I will believe it when i see an f16 in ukraine airspace.

[C24]

[vimeo][/vimeo]

https://www.forces.net/ukraine/uk-could ... -two-years



I apologise if this link does not work.

[steamy]

[vimeo][/vimeo]

https://www.forces.net/ukraine/uk-could ... -two-years



I apologise if this link does not work.

from the article:

"Air Marshal (Ret'd) Greg Bagwell said the training could be accomplished in the two-year time frame "if you really pressed it" for a youngster "never having flown before"."

So somebody who has never flown before.... baring in mind, the RAF can't currently do even close to that with their own pilots...

Ukrainian pilots would have extensive fighter experience.

Current conversion course for the Romainian's et al is 6 months in the US.... it's extended to just over a year because they include warm up training on other types, along with aerial refuelling and English language courses, all of which are looking to be possibly butchered out to facilitate the 4 month time frame.

[Col Nago]

It also looks like some of the Ukrainian pilots have already been doing F-16 familiarisation via off the shelf simulator software. That totally makes sense. Not to mention you’re already a trained fast jet pilot and you have more combat experience than a lot of NATO pilots, and as with the guys that came over to train in the Chally, you have a massive drive to learn so you can free your country from the Russians, resulting in (according to their trainers) an astonishingly fast time to become combat ready. I’m sure it will be the same with the ground crew.

[Aircmdr]

It all really depends on whether we want to risk giving them f-16s, Yes we have hundreds if not thousands in storage sat doing nothing, but these fighters are probably a lot more versatile and better equipped than the ageing Russian birds, don`t get me wrong, the SU-27s and Mig-29s are good aircraft but I think F-16s in the right hands will do some serious damage and I think Russia are very worried about that.

[steamy]

It all really depends on whether we want to risk giving them f-16s, Yes we have hundreds if not thousands in storage sat doing nothing, but these fighters are probably a lot more versatile and better equipped than the ageing Russian birds, don`t get me wrong, the SU-27s and Mig-29s are good aircraft but I think F-16s in the right hands will do some serious damage and I think Russia are very worried about that.

and that's a bad thing why?

[Aircmdr]

Its not a bad thing at all if it starts taking affect on Russia, its if Russia see the donation of these jets as a threat to its country from the west, To be honest, I think Russia are looking for an excuse to escalate the situation. They are taking heavy losses in Ukraine, with donated F-16s on the table that will outclass their fighters, god knows what they will do, seems to all be words at the moment, but how long will it be until they use physical matters instead?

[Sparts99]

Its all turning the screw on Putin. Those around him will increasingly realise the Ukraine invasion was a massive gamble on Putin's part that isn't paying off. Rather than boosting Russia's economy long term by getting control of Ukraine's agriculture and manufacturing capacity its now driving Russia towards serious poverty, and killing hundreds of thousands of Russians, and long term Russia will have a massive problem controlling the Ukrainian population even if they are successful. Aside from the relative capabilities of the F16 and SU-27 it demonstrates the West will support Ukrainian resistance and are in it for the long term. Putin's lost, it just needs those around him to realise they are on the losing side and to depose him and try to find a way out if it by talking to the West and ceasing hostilities, or see the destruction of Russia.

[Col Nago]

Exactly Sparts99.

Also, NATO and friends know way more than we do about Putin's 'red line', but the consensus between the many genuine military analysts is that we can pretty much take the nuclear threat with the biggest pinch of salt now - hence the ramping up of serious weapons to Ukraine. Putin has way more to worry about back home.