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The Ukraine Situation

A place to chat and discuss everything and anything thats NOT Military Aviation related. No Civilian Aviation content please. We would be grateful for such inclusions on our sister site - Civilian Aviation.
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seven
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by seven » Fri Sep 02, 2022 2:56 pm

plmc135 wrote:
Fri Sep 02, 2022 11:49 am
raptor9 wrote:
Fri Sep 02, 2022 10:03 am
Negotiate? With Putin???. You're having a laugh!!. Might as well just p..s in the wind. The effect will be the same!.
So how do you think this conflict will be resolved? I take it you want it to carry on indefinitely; our cost of living does not bear thought in that scenario.
Negotiations are not the answer. Appeasement went well didn't it... Fact of the matter is, either violence or crippling sections on the giving of orders was the correct answer. Unfortunately due to the woke society the west is now no one could agree on that at the time that opportunity was missed. Not only that, the UN should have grown some balls and removed Russia from any power the second the above orders were given. At this point in time the UN has about as much global influence as I do.

Whilst it is a struggle in this day and age to pay bills and buy food or whatever, the problem is very much here, and this is where it should be sorted. Not demanding we stop supporting the country being brutalised, raped and murdered just do you can afford to go to the next airshow or go down the pub.
#KeepFightingMichael #banthebulls

iainpeden
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by iainpeden » Fri Sep 02, 2022 4:36 pm

Seven, only problem with your argument is this.

The only way the Russians can be stopped in their tracks and pushed back to the borders is if NATO gets directly involved with land troops, tanks, air strikes and the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet; that way lies strategic nuclear action and bye bye world.

Negotiate from strength but negotiate; but it does take two to tango.

Interesting that the G7 have just introduced a price cap on Russian oil products which could reduce money going into the fighting coffers.

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seven
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by seven » Fri Sep 02, 2022 9:27 pm

Not necessarily. The Ukrainian armed forces are doing a stunning job in holding back the Russian advance. Though it remains to be seen how the current counter offensive is going and will pan out. As for nuclear weapons, one would imagine it wouldn't get to that point. As even comrade furher wouldn't want to be annihilated along with the odd special friend he still has. And one thing people tend to forget, he can't launch such weapons alone, they have multiple security procedures to prevent such things happening.

Perhaps one of the reasons Putler decided to take Ukraine was because he knew the west would do nothing about it? And guess what, that's exactly what we've done. Negotiations from strength would be great, but until Ukraine has taken back all its territory and is on the borders aiming out, it has no strength to negotiate from.

And yes, good idea from the G7 regarding Russian oil, just a shame its 7 months late.
#KeepFightingMichael #banthebulls

iainpeden
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by iainpeden » Sat Sep 03, 2022 7:21 am

Fair arguments Seven.
However, while we have multiple safe guards (and nothing is infallible) for our nuclear weapons I’m not sure about the Russians.
First Putin is a dictator and as we see with their fighter control tactics it’s very much a case of do what you are told don’t think about it.
Second, the technical failure of much of their equipment down to poor production and maintenance could easily carry through to the nuclear kit - it might work, or might not.

Interesting what will happen now that Putin has totally cut gas exports to Europe - this is going to affect us all for years to come.

pg1610
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by pg1610 » Sat Sep 03, 2022 8:28 am

Seven wrotel


because he knew the west would do nothing about it? And guess what, that's exactly what we've done.


This is incorrect (but I think I know where you are heading) as the west/NATO/and others have supplied billions of (£$€) into the UAF allowing them to take the fight to Russia,without that aid I think Ukraine would be under Russian control,at least the Donbass and surrounding areas,

For the sake of argument it could be said these areas have fallen but as fighting is ongoing they are not fully surprised thankfully
Phil

pg1610
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by pg1610 » Sat Sep 03, 2022 8:34 am

One other groups of people who have a vested interest are the US/UK/EU arms manufacturers

Whilst a lot of the vehicles supplied are from stores (drawdown stocks) (how many helmets have we UK supplied) the missiles and ammunition will have to be replenished so some money to be maid by LM/GD/BAE/Raytheon etc
Phil

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seven
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by seven » Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:41 am

pg1610 wrote:
Sat Sep 03, 2022 8:28 am
This is incorrect (but I think I know where you are heading) as the west/NATO/and others have supplied billions of (£$€) into the UAF allowing them to take the fight to Russia,without that aid I think Ukraine would be under Russian control,at least the Donbass and surrounding areas,
So yea, basically nothing then. 'Here's some sticks to keep fighting your attacker. Sorry not gonna join in as he might hit us'.
And as far as I recall, there were no major western arms deliveries to Ukraine before they managed to push the invaders from Kyiv. So that victory is mostly down to Ukraine itself, and should be recognised as such.
#KeepFightingMichael #banthebulls

100arw
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by 100arw » Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:06 am

seven wrote:
Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:41 am
pg1610 wrote:
Sat Sep 03, 2022 8:28 am
So that victory is mostly down to Ukraine itself, and should be recognised as such.
Ukraine yes. But only because of the loss of the two IL-76s carrying the initial Para attacking force.
P.

pg1610
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by pg1610 » Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:21 am

seven wrote:
Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:41 am
pg1610 wrote:
Sat Sep 03, 2022 8:28 am
This is incorrect (but I think I know where you are heading) as the west/NATO/and others have supplied billions of (£$€) into the UAF allowing them to take the fight to Russia,without that aid I think Ukraine would be under Russian control,at least the Donbass and surrounding areas,
So yea, basically nothing then. 'Here's some sticks to keep fighting your attacker. Sorry not gonna join in as he might hit us'.
And as far as I recall, there were no major western arms deliveries to Ukraine before they managed to push the invaders from Kyiv. So that victory is mostly down to Ukraine itself, and should be recognised as such.
Re Kyiv yes agree but the discussion currently is about today's situation,not what happend 6 months ago,

So the delivery of hardware has had a significant impact in turning the tide and may in time bring Russia to the table ,it is just to unclear at present
Phil

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seven
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by seven » Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:57 am

100arw wrote:
Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:06 am
seven wrote:
Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:41 am
pg1610 wrote:
Sat Sep 03, 2022 8:28 am
So that victory is mostly down to Ukraine itself, and should be recognised as such.
Ukraine yes. But only because of the loss of the two IL-76s carrying the initial Para attacking force.
P.
Firstly, that's a very unfair, uninformed and incorrect choice of phrase. And secondly, there is no evidence that these shootdowns actually took place. Sadly.
#KeepFightingMichael #banthebulls

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seven
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by seven » Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:02 am

pg1610 wrote:
Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:21 am


Re Kyiv yes agree but the discussion currently is about today's situation,not what happend 6 months ago,

So the delivery of hardware has had a significant impact in turning the tide and may in time bring Russia to the table ,it is just to unclear at present
That's not what you said though, you said that Ukraine would be under Russian control without the west's aid. That is not the case, Putler gave up on the country as a whole (possily temporarily) with the withdrawal from Kyiv and the North. Whereas yes, possibly the Donbas region and more of the south would be under Russian control without the West's aid, but again, too little too late.
#KeepFightingMichael #banthebulls

100arw
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by 100arw » Sat Sep 03, 2022 12:18 pm

Unfair, uninformed and incorrect? - if only you knew :-)

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seven
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by seven » Sat Sep 03, 2022 1:33 pm

Feel free to share photos of the wreckage(s), serials involved, casualties, locations etc. Because no one else saw it happen..
#KeepFightingMichael #banthebulls

Col Nago
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by Col Nago » Sun Sep 04, 2022 5:44 am

NATO had been training the UF for years leading up to the invasion, and in the weeks running up to it (and in the following weeks) Rzeszów airport had a constant procession of aircraft delivering Javelin and MANPADS. The missiles and training in asymmetrical warfare played a pivotal part in stopping the Russians. Not to mention the 24/7 RC-135, AWACS, satellite, and almost certainly U-2 flights providing real time data to Ukraine. Oh and you can be sure that NATO had a fair few SF in there providing ‘advice’. So the West might not have provided the big toys before Ivan started to pull back, but it most certainly provided game changing help.

Col Nago
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by Col Nago » Sun Sep 11, 2022 2:59 pm

Oh dear oh dear. The biggest Russian defeat since WWII is unfolding at an unbelievable speed right now. The amount of tanks, SPGs, APCs, air defence equipment, brand spanking new counter battery radar vehicles, warehouses full of ammunition. you name it, they've abandoned it, is incredible. They are in full flight. They're even shooting down their own aircraft they're in such a panic (an Su-25 was downed by their own SAMs earlier this morning).

It's been an astonishing tactical move by the UF - make it look like you're about to go all guns into the Kherson region, forcing the idiots to move all their equipment to the region, then tell absolutely nobody that you're really going in from the North East with the very best of the NATO supplied equipment. It now looks like they have taken at least 2000 square km in the last couple of days and Russia's Tass news agency have just officially confirmed that their forces are in retreat.

Bravo Ukraine. Bravo!

cat1
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by cat1 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:37 am

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ba ... 022-09-19/

russia, the russian army in general and putin in particular have been pushed right into a corner here. yet when a dog is pushed into a corner it does it most stupid things, lets hope for some sanity inside the kremlin.

slogen51
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by slogen51 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:21 am

Sanity inside the Kremlin!

You should be on the TV

Seriously though I understand what you are saying. It would be good if they could sell a tactical withdrawal as part of the master plan and come up with face saving solution to their predicament. In the past Soviet administrations have been fairly pragmatic but can that be said of Russia and under that man?

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plmc135
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by plmc135 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:20 pm

Been commented on BBC news earlier today that President Erdogan of Turkiye believes that Putin is ready to talk and negotiate.

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Craig
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by Craig » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:11 pm

plmc135 wrote:
Fri Sep 02, 2022 7:33 am
The time has come for Governments to stop these massive arms deliveries to Ukraine and attempt to get the two factions together to sort this mess out. In addition to the Ukrainian populous, we are the ones who are paying the penalty for this and so long as we are arming Ukraine this conflict will continue at our personal expense.

Time to put pressure on the UN to act, they have hardly been mentioned all through. This must be stopped a.s.a.p. and it will only be done by talking.
Absolutely, this war is going to be fought until the last dead Ukrainian though unfortunately.

Giving then weapons and encouraging them to launch counteroffensives against the Russian held parts of the country will not change anything about the outcome of the situation, other than bring about the deaths of many people and perhaps anger the Russians to take the gloves off.

Like I have said before, and I am not supporting them - far from it, just trying to look at things logically; the Russians are not even at war with Ukraine.

What the Kharkov counteroffensive did achieve was a very limited retaliation from the Russians with missiles launched from the Black Sea and Caspian which took out power and water to half of Ukraine. It was a demonstration that at any moment civilian infrastructure can be targeted and Ukraine sent back to the dark ages.

The fact that it happened now, and not 6 months ago at the beginning of the actions in Ukraine shows clearly that the Russian objective is not to destroy Ukraine. If they wanted to have done that they already would have done. Do you really think Ukraine would still have trains running, mobile phone networks operating and Zelensky hosting foreign leaders in Kiev if Russia was really carrying out mass industrialised warfare against it?

I don't know if people are aware, but most of the manpower on the Russian side from what I can tell has not been frontline regular troops, but mainly the separatist forces and effectively military contractors. They have been winning the slow meat grind due to the overwhelming backing of Russian artillery.

What I expect to see in the coming weeks will be referendums inside the Donetsk and Luhansk peoples republic, which will see them join the Russian Federation.

This is the point that the special military operation changes, as the Russians could then put military bases in those territories and will view an attack on those areas as an attack on Russia itself, at which point they may mobilise their regulars and declare war against Ukraine, which by association will be against the UK/US etc who took it to this point.

The whole thing from a geopolitic view appears to have been to create a wedge between Europe (especially Germany) and Russia, whilst destroying EU's reliance on Russian gas and the trade itself. The question to ask is who benefits? Not the Ukrainians that's for sure, and not the people of Britain/West either if energy prices are anything to go by...

slogen51
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Re: The Ukraine Situation

Post by slogen51 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:07 pm

It is a bit late at night to think of a thoughtful reply but I have to say I don't agree with anything in the above post.

I think you are saying let the bully win because we can't afford the price?

I believe Ukrainian people will fight to the last man to save a scrap of Ukraine territory. If we don't help where will it end? Latvia or Estonia or perhaps Finland is there for the taking .

Oh yes what about the mass graves! Shall we just forget about them or Malaysian Flight 17 from Amsterdam?

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