Will Sunak Survive Until The Election

[James Cutting]

Well said.

[RubyRoo]

One area you do look to improve under the Tories is defence, as I don’t think many trust Labour on that front, but then again, after years of conservative government can we really say our armed forces are well equipped and in good shape?

Defence spending between 1997 and 2024 has averaged 2.4% GDP. At its height it was 2.7% (under Labour) until it was taken down to 2.1% between 2015 and 2019 by the Tories. It went from a peak 5.5% (in 1984 for obvious reasons) to 2.7% then handed over to Labour.

I'm in the telecoms business, my wife runs her own company, my best mates range from a CEO in the food industry to high level UK corporate lawyers and one is even a European corporate lawyer - we all agree that Brexit and the subsequent years have been an unmitigated disaster for the UK economy. Blaming some of it on COVID is a cop out. The rest of the First World is up to speed again, or almost up to speed - but were languishing about like idiots.

Myself and my friends have never and will never vote Tory.

Very well said.

Can anyone name a single thing that has been better for the UK since Brexit? It has been nothing short of a disaster.

People associate Labour with being too left-wing (not true), which evidently won't win much support across a defence forum such as this, however as you quite rightly mentioned, the Tories have decimated UK defence over the last decade to embarrassingly terrible levels.

[James Cutting]

What do you mean, Brexit got our country back!! (That we never lost)

[RubyRoo]

I for one am grateful for gaining a blue passport which we could have had anyway.

I am thankful for this country reducing long-run productivity by 4%.

I am thankful for exports and imports being reduced by 15%.

I am thankful for knowing new trade deals with non-EU countries will not have any material impact.

I am thankful for ending freedom of movement just to see net migration increase since Brexit.

I am thankful for having the extra £350m a week to spend on the NHS being spent on the £900m a month payments we need to provide the EU as part of the divorce settlement to the tune of £35.6 billion for no demonstrable benefit.

Thank you Conservatives. Never vote Labour!



https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-e ... is/#future
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_divorce_bill

[XWP29]

One area you do look to improve under the Tories is defence, as I don’t think many trust Labour on that front, but then again, after years of conservative government can we really say our armed forces are well equipped and in good shape?

Defence spending between 1997 and 2024 has averaged 2.4% GDP. At its height it was 2.7% (under Labour) until it was taken down to 2.1% between 2015 and 2019 by the Tories. It went from a peak 5.5% (in 1984 for obvious reasons) to 2.7% then handed over to Labour.

I'm in the telecoms business, my wife runs her own company, my best mates range from a CEO in the food industry to high level UK corporate lawyers and one is even a European corporate lawyer - we all agree that Brexit and the subsequent years have been an unmitigated disaster for the UK economy. Blaming some of it on COVID is a cop out. The rest of the First World is up to speed again, or almost up to speed - but were languishing about like idiots.

Myself and my friends have never and will never vote Tory.

Lot of rambling there Col.
A European Corporate Lawyer not liking Brexit. I wonder why that would be!
Brexit is in its infancy it’ll be years yet to blossom, the years of the attempts to frustrate and thwart the result of the referendum caused a lot of damage to let’s not forget.
Yet we won’t be subject to VDL and the unelected politburo that is the Commission anymore. .
And we escape the protectionism of individual European countries that prevents the free trade of many products and companies. Multi national companies abound in easily traded services and some goods, the EU is the deliverer of that capitalist opportunity. Socialists tend not to be able to grasp this.

Have you followed the German economic news? Germany, “Once a Powerhouse, Is at an Economic ‘Standstill’” New York Times.

[James Cutting]

But it's been 8 years since it was voted for and they didn't even have a plan, and everything was built on a literal bus of lies, and we've had people in power/cabinet that didn't even vote for it.

[Col Nago]

A European Corporate Lawyer not liking Brexit. I wonder why that would be!

He has to mediate between the UK and Europe and deal with our country's mess. If anyone is more qualified to comment on the situation it's him.

[Tally-ho]

The recurring mess within British politics is a manifestation of an increasingly out of date, antiquated, unfit for modern day governance of a country.

Unless and until the British Westminster system of government is replaced by proportional representation, a system whereby seats in the Commons are allocated by the percentage of votes garnered in an election. If you get 10% of the vote, you are allocated 10% of representation (seats) in the Commons. That is true democracy! It may (will) also mean that alliances with others may (will) have to be forged in order to govern. Bravo! The more your policies find support with the electorate, the more seats you will have in the Commons.

No more this nonsense of the winner takes all. No more this nonsense of filling benches with 90+% of Conservatives and Labour. No more ping-pong Laurel and Hardy taking turns on incompetence and buffoonery.

It's time for a radical overhaul.

[Philly1971]

The recurring mess within British politics is a manifestation of an increasingly out of date, antiquated, unfit for modern day governance of a country.

Unless and until the British Westminster system of government is replaced by proportional representation, a system whereby seats in the Commons are allocated by the percentage of votes garnered in an election. If you get 10% of the vote, you are allocated 10% of representation (seats) in the Commons. That is true democracy! It may (will) also mean that alliances with others may (will) have to be forged in order to govern. Bravo! The more your policies find support with the electorate, the more seats you will have in the Commons.

No more this nonsense of the winner takes all. No more this nonsense of filling benches with 90+% of Conservatives and Labour. No more ping-pong Laurel and Hardy taking turns on incompetence and buffoonery.

It's time for a radical overhaul.

I think you have hit the nail on the head there. While PR is not perfect, the first past the post system is an absolute disaster, and historically you could even argue not democratic. I was shocked to see how many governments since WWII were voted into power with less than 50% of votes. How can you have a system where a government rules despite more people voting against it! I live in Epping, and so our local MP is senior Tory ( and deputy speaker?) Elenor Laing. It’s one of the safest Tory seats in the county, and I always joke she could publicly punch a baby in the face, and take a massive dump in Epping high street and she would still get elected! More seriously, for those of us who don’t want her as our MP, our voting slip is barely worth the ink I have to put on it.

[James Cutting]

The other problem you have, is "I don't want to vote because it's pointless" no - it really isn't, taking votes away from the main party is pretty important as well. It's this same people, who refuse to use their right to vote, who often moan the most.

[atech]

The trouble with proportional representation is that you always end up with minority rule. In order to form a government the larger parties have to form a coalition with the smaller parties who will always hold out for their minority wishes. Just imagine the UK policies being decided by the SNP or green parties. If you don’t believe this, just look at Holland, Belgium, and other countries who have PR, it’s almost impossible to form a stable government and have general elections ad infinitum.

The only really democratic solution is to get rid of all political parties (who only have their self interests at heart anyway) and go to simple majority rule. All MP’s should be elected as independents, and be held to account by their constituents. We they get elected, and get to Westminster they can elect a leader and cabinet, and so on. Simple majority voting on all legislation and no voting along party lines.

Simple in theory but will never happen in practice

[iainpeden]

The problem with PR is that we could end up with Ed Davey actually having to make a decision.

[XWP29]

A European Corporate Lawyer not liking Brexit. I wonder why that would be!

He has to mediate between the UK and Europe and deal with our country's mess. If anyone is more qualified to comment on the situation it's him.

That’s the problem, a set of legal issues for one Lawyer isn’t a credible argument about the whole situation?
The EU created this mess, if they had actually had some flex before we had the referendum. They made it worse by trying to bully the U.K. in the withdrawal agreement.
I’m aware of companies that have sorted the transitional technicalities and still trade easily with EU countries. It’s a mixed picture.

The EU have very recently backed down on car import red tape (bans) under pressure from the European manufacturers.
I would not call that an EU lie, just positioning from the Commissioners in their high castle and they’ve had to change tack.

[STN RAMP RAT]

As a reminder we had a PR referendum back in 2011, the country voted against it. Ita amazing how many people seem to have forgotten it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Un ... referendum

[Mike]

I'm fairly certain that Sunak will survive until the election, Gary.

I am also fairly sure that Labour will win the election, but how will Starmer, and his cronies, deal with the illegal immigration issue?

Will they give France even more millions of pounds every year to 'patrol' the French beaches, or do it ourselves and tow them back to France?

[James Cutting]

Saying "The Country" voted something in when less than 45% of eligible voters, voted on it. Like people who say "The Country" voted in Brexit.

[STN RAMP RAT]

Saying "The Country" voted something in when less than 45% of eligible voters, voted on it. Like people who say "The Country" voted in Brexit.

That’s a fair point. At the risk of thread drift, in my view there is a potential case for having no elected official if the constituency can’t get a turnout over a certain percentage of voters.

The police and crime commissioners are being elected with incredibly low turnouts.

[Mictheslik]

As a reminder we had a PR referendum back in 2011, the country voted against it. Ita amazing how many people seem to have forgotten it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Un ... referendum

The 2011 referendum was on the alternative vote. Very much not on PR, although I suspect if it had been on PR it would also have been rejected as most people sadly don’t care, and many of those that do don’t really understand the details and vote whichever way their preferred media outlet will persuade them too anyway.

The AV would have at least given people the option of voting for minority parties, knowing they could have a backup for the least worse of the main ones. Baby steps, but we voted against….they joys of referendums….

[slogen51]

I don't like the sound of PR in fact I think in some ways it's undemocratic!! For example you could never really get a party out of government; Conservative or Labour would be ever present in large numbers in a coalition even with dwindling popularity. Also of course coalition governments can be held to 'ransom' by having to deal with more extreme minorities

AV could work but I didn't think it would really make much of a difference so from memory I voted against it in the referendum.

I think first past the post works because it keeps extreme left and right out of power. Parties must have a reasonable and sensible manifesto to have any chance of being elected by the British people.

I personally believe most of the problems in the country are not related to Government policy. For years we have had it easy with north sea oil, cheap energy and well paid jobs but the rest of the world has caught up and we have become uncompetitive.

I suppose the biggest issues are the affordability of housing and availability of decent jobs that can allow youngsters to marry and have families and be proud of their homes?

By the way I still think this is one of the best countries in the world to live in and we are fortunate to be born here.

[raptor9]

Slogen. I totally agree with your last sentence [and some previous ones].