Weather watch for the week ahead

[Richard B]

Thought a weather topic for the week ahead to RIAT would be in order, so you can all prepare.
looking at the country file forcast the weather is going to be pretty much the same, rain and sunshine, thunder storms and below season temps.
pretty rubbish to be honest.

[RichC]

Going by the current SFC charts, a low pressure centre sits right over Fairford on Friday afternoon. Unless the LP shifts, can expect a mixture of sunshine, showers and a strong cross wind.
Of course, it's way to early yet, bring it up to Wednesday and the model runs will be fairly accurate and could change a bit between here and then.

The week so far looks rather damn messy with cold/warm and occluded fronts coming in thick and fast from the Atlantic due to the jet stream being in an unusual place. Its streaming over the crappy weather non stop.
Can't really say what the weekend holds yet...to early.

[seven]

Come on, lets face it, its going to be pants weather so go prepared for it. Better to turn up with a brolly in the blazing sun than shorts and a shirt in the thundering rain

[nick197]

I was feeling quite depressed about the weather but now i'm feeling a little more optimistic. It could be looking worse with garenteed rain every day all day and if it does rain, With it being a southerly wind it wont be into our faces but onto our backs. So get yourself a decent brolley or umbrella and all will be well with the world. Just imagine the spray of the runway and vapour coming those fast jets .

I'm cleaning my uncles car today ready for RIAT so the rain today could be a bit more of a problem .

[nick197]

Just seen south today weather, Begining of the week periods or rain, Latter part of the week there confident of sunshine and showers. Not to bad, Could be worse

[seven]

Just imagine the spray of the runway and vapour coming those fast jets .
.

No need to imagine that! Ive had it every year since 2007!

7

[lozza]

Going by the current SFC charts, a low pressure centre sits right over Fairford on Friday afternoon. Unless the LP shifts, can expect a mixture of sunshine, showers and a strong cross wind.
Of course, it's way to early yet, bring it up to Wednesday and the model runs will be fairly accurate and could change a bit between here and then.

The week so far looks rather damn messy with cold/warm and occluded fronts coming in thick and fast from the Atlantic due to the jet stream being in an unusual place. Its streaming over the crappy weather non stop.
Can't really say what the weekend holds yet...to early.

Its been farther south than usual for quite a few years now, sadly I think this weather is going to become the norm for years to come, lets be honest its getting worst every year, feeling somewhat utterly pee'ed off at the moment.

loz

[steve149c]

Not strictly true, the Jetstream was a lot further north this last winters hence why we had two or three highs that stabilised and gave us the cold weather, plus the nice March, April, May. At the moment it is roughly in its usual winter position, but shouldn't be too hard for it to move a little south soon. As for the weather, hmmmm, few interesting fronts about, but predictions that far ahead are really difficult.

[Habu Hunter]

Check this out
http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/cirenc ... ccuweather

[phantommadman]

When I look outside the window on said mornings,thats my weather forecast Is meant to be absolutely chucking down at the mo according to the forecasts but it's not too bad,just can't trust 'em.

[RichC]

When I look outside the window on said mornings,thats my weather forecast Is meant to be absolutely chucking down at the mo according to the forecasts but it's not too bad,just can't trust 'em.

Well, if those in the USA or even those last Thursday did that, they would be rather peed off of the events that can unfold within 30mins to an hour and can even catch people out and cause death (sounds silly i know but think about it).
If you look out the window on the day and see blue skies, and the conditions were as ripe for storms as they were Thursday, you could be within torrential downpours and flash flooding within an hour of seeing the blue skies. But those down the road might not get anything.
I keep seeing people say this on this forum and it's certainly not the way to go. What if you look out the window and see blue skies and decide to go mountain climbing...and a storm developed within 30mins (which they do out of little tiny fluffy cumulus)? Or you look out the window and see blue skies where you are but 30 miles down the road at your destination it's pissing down with rain with lightning. Totally bullish way of doing it i think. It's how people who do conduct some of these hobbies get caught out and have to be rescued.
You have to remember forecasts are for a wide area, not specific to a point (Your house).

If many of you just took what the TV forecasters had to say Wednesday a lot of you wouldn't have had no idea how intense these thunderstorms were going to be last Thursday, or indeed that they were even coming. It's why i put a heads up in the General Chat section as i thought it would need to be said that someone on this forum would be getting some rather extreme and rare weather events in this country on that day. The TV forecasts have to be diplomatic about the weather so to speak, they can't go round saying Supercells are forecast with Tornadoes and golf ball sized hail. As if it doesn't happen at someones particular home location, they are considered lying. Even though the forecast is , as a whole for a wide area and someone getting sunshine in one location may only be 20-30 miles from somewhere else getting pelted by large hail and damaging winds.

As for the jetstream, it is factored by how highs/ridges are located or the opposite, upper troughs for example.
The "Azores" high usually is the main factor for our summer time. If it is in place, and it moves slightly north east like it should be doing (towards Portugal) then it blocks the Jetstreams path southwards. So we (in the UK) get some nice sunny weather for a few weeks or should i say a "heat wave".
If it does not move in to the location above, then the Icelandic Low takes hold and pushes the jetstream southwards through the weaker side of the Azores high and so grabs hold of all the low pressure systems that develop around Greenland and down past Canada and to the SW Atlantic, and pulls them across to the UK and northern Europe.
This is what is happening now, all the LP systems are being snapped up by the JS and pushed across the UK with no let up in it because the Azores High has not developed its northward track.
It's not far i guess from the position it should be in during the winter, which as it moves south of the Azores, it lets the jetstream go southwards which is why we get all the crappy windy/gale force winds in the winter.

So we need to wait for the ridging to take hold and push the crappy weather away. It acts as a 'block" and literally blocks the low pressure systems from coming to the UK and normally pushes them further north over Iceland and the Arctic instead.
This might be of interest to someone... http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/ ... s/NAO.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Perhaps look at the SFC Pressure chart for this week and you'll get an idea on how crappy the weather is going to be for the next few days. It is LP after LP with numerous frontal zones passing over..

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... -pressure/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and just click the rectangular green buttons to see the latest SFC runs. They will change slightly each day. But can be a very good way of planning your trips. Obviously depends on how intense the fronts are expected to be and what factors (troughs, plumes of moist warm air etc) are going to enhance them or if they fade away but in general... keep an eye on these charts.
Last thursdays extreme thunderstorm events were caused by the cold front and trough mixing with the unstable plume of warm moist air from Spain.

If you look at the LP locations, more warm moist air will be advected up this week but unsure right now whether the forecast of "rain" will be anything more or less.

[Richard B]

Would not of expected the hailstorms we got here Thursday, going through my house insurance at present for a new roof on my conservatory, every panel is holed with marble size holes.

I was @ Waddington at the time and got no Hail just a lot of amazing clouds and thunder and lightning, also what looked like the potential for a few twister.
stopped all flying while the storms was about.

Will have to see how much the arrivals traffic chew up the soft ground. said before that while its wet they should keep everyone off the grass areas until show days.

[lozza]

Some interesting info Rich, all I know is that what ever the facts may be, its getting worse each year and its getting me down

[RichC]

Yes, the hail sizes were expected but of course not known where until the storms have maturely developed like that of those in Leics and Lincs.

If you look here, you can see how fast (from a nice sunny day) a supercell can get hold. This storm below had hail 9cm in diameter (pics seen with a vernier for measurement) and severe damaging winds and lightning every few seconds.

Look at south west Germany, lovely clear sunny day over the whole of that region.
Time is 15.45 and you can just see a small gathering (line) of cumulus over some high ground.

image courtesy of sat24.com

Time 16.45, one hour later... convection has exploded and lightning already happening and hail covering an area of around 30 miles. So gone from nice little fluffy white clouds as you see on a typical summers day to that in one hour.

image courtesy of sat24.com

17.45. Now, a supercell developed within 2 hours of the developing MCS which produced massive hail and became a damaging storm) The MCS developed covering an area of most of southern and central Germany throughout the night with 20,000+ lightning strikes (500 per hour at one point).

image courtesy of sat24.com

23.00 that night, imagery is infra-red and most of southern/central Germany now covered in an MCS.


People who looked out the window the other day and saw nice blue skies never thought they would be getting hail 9cm in diameter smashing their cars to pieces and roofs! You cannot say the forecasters are not trustworthy. It's rather unfair on the massive job they have to do to keep people up to date on what is going to happen. Weather catches even the forecasters out.

As for RIAT (going back onto topic), the fields all around the airfield will be water logged already, if they don't provide metal/faun matting, then it could turn out to be a rather muddy exit.
Rain is expected (apart from today), tomorrow, Wednesday and a possibility of Friday having sunshine/showers.
Do they use the show day carparks for the arrivals lot through the week too? And do they cover the fields now in matting?

[RichC]

They need faun matting (metal matting) down along the main thorough-fairs of each field. Or do they do this anyway? The military has shed loads of the stuff and do it for other "free" events around the country so i would have thought it wouldn't be a problem to get hold of the stuff for Fairford.

[davem]

They've always done this in the Red car park Rich for show days, (27 end) although for P+V they've parked on-base at the 09 end for a few years now and in the bomb store at the 27 end for P+V days.

[RichC]

Ahh good call, was this since the deluge a few years ago?

[phantommadman]

When I look outside the window on said mornings,thats my weather forecast Is meant to be absolutely chucking down at the mo according to the forecasts but it's not too bad,just can't trust 'em.

Well, if those in the USA or even those last Thursday did that, they would be rather peed off of the events that can unfold within 30mins to an hour and can even catch people out and cause death (sounds silly i know but think about it).
If you look out the window on the day and see blue skies, and the conditions were as ripe for storms as they were Thursday, you could be within torrential downpours and flash flooding within an hour of seeing the blue skies. But those down the road might not get anything.
I keep seeing people say this on this forum and it's certainly not the way to go. What if you look out the window and see blue skies and decide to go mountain climbing...and a storm developed within 30mins (which they do out of little tiny fluffy cumulus)? Or you look out the window and see blue skies where you are but 30 miles down the road at your destination it's pissing down with rain with lightning. Totally bullish way of doing it i think. It's how people who do conduct some of these hobbies get caught out and have to be rescued.
You have to remember forecasts are for a wide area, not specific to a point (Your house).

If many of you just took what the TV forecasters had to say Wednesday a lot of you wouldn't have had no idea how intense these thunderstorms were going to be last Thursday, or indeed that they were even coming. It's why i put a heads up in the General Chat section as i thought it would need to be said that someone on this forum would be getting some rather extreme and rare weather events in this country on that day. The TV forecasts have to be diplomatic about the weather so to speak, they can't go round saying Supercells are forecast with Tornadoes and golf ball sized hail. As if it doesn't happen at someones particular home location, they are considered lying. Even though the forecast is , as a whole for a wide area and someone getting sunshine in one location may only be 20-30 miles from somewhere else getting pelted by large hail and damaging winds.

As for the jetstream, it is factored by how highs/ridges are located or the opposite, upper troughs for example.
The "Azores" high usually is the main factor for our summer time. If it is in place, and it moves slightly north east like it should be doing (towards Portugal) then it blocks the Jetstreams path southwards. So we (in the UK) get some nice sunny weather for a few weeks or should i say a "heat wave".
If it does not move in to the location above, then the Icelandic Low takes hold and pushes the jetstream southwards through the weaker side of the Azores high and so grabs hold of all the low pressure systems that develop around Greenland and down past Canada and to the SW Atlantic, and pulls them across to the UK and northern Europe.
This is what is happening now, all the LP systems are being snapped up by the JS and pushed across the UK with no let up in it because the Azores High has not developed its northward track.
It's not far i guess from the position it should be in during the winter, which as it moves south of the Azores, it lets the jetstream go southwards which is why we get all the crappy windy/gale force winds in the winter.

So we need to wait for the ridging to take hold and push the crappy weather away. It acts as a 'block" and literally blocks the low pressure systems from coming to the UK and normally pushes them further north over Iceland and the Arctic instead.
This might be of interest to someone... http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/ ... s/NAO.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Perhaps look at the SFC Pressure chart for this week and you'll get an idea on how crappy the weather is going to be for the next few days. It is LP after LP with numerous frontal zones passing over..

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... -pressure/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and just click the rectangular green buttons to see the latest SFC runs. They will change slightly each day. But can be a very good way of planning your trips. Obviously depends on how intense the fronts are expected to be and what factors (troughs, plumes of moist warm air etc) are going to enhance them or if they fade away but in general... keep an eye on these charts.
Last thursdays extreme thunderstorm events were caused by the cold front and trough mixing with the unstable plume of warm moist air from Spain.

If you look at the LP locations, more warm moist air will be advected up this week but unsure right now whether the forecast of "rain" will be anything more or less.

Blimey,was just having a light hearted observation about my experiences,I wasn't expecting a Spanish inquisition :OInteresting information though

[RichC]

god and it took me ages to write all that too.

[KINROTATE]

"Generally, daylight, winds backing late afternoon, occassionally - unpredictable clouds. Sun in the South rising and falling, becoming darker as the numbers get bigger".

This is what I am planning for..........