Russians occupy Crimea

[Stroudy]

Might see some renewed Mig/SU/TU action in the area facing off against the West. Lovely...

[Strathayr]

That is the last thing we need .I am not a pacifist but we should avoid envolvement in a remote potential conflict other than to protect our gas supplies in this case.

[Ronald Reagan]

There will be some harsh western words to condemn this and that will be all. Crimea was originally Russian anyhow and has a majority Russian population.
There is talk coming from the Russian government they do not recognise the new Kiev authorities as legitimate and that they still view Yanukovych as the lawful President. It would be highly unwise and dangerous for our western governments to get involved in this. This is in the Russian sphere of influence so not really anything to do with us.

[Vulcanone]

Yes, We have been involved in the Crimea before....

Charge of the Light Brigade and all that..


Tim S

[Pen Pusher]

Well done Russia

Might see some renewed Mig/SU/TU action in the area facing off against the West. Lovely...

So you're quite happy that a lot of people could possibly be killed if there is any action just as long as you see some Russian fast jet action.

Brian

[hertsman]

I don't pretend to understand all the regional issues involved in this upheaval. There appear to be key arguments around which power bloc to fall in behind - Russia or the EU - which in turn have their roots in a turbulent and violent history. Add in that Ukraine is bust and it's a dreadful situation for all involved, be they pro-west or pro-Russia.

It's not surprising that Russia is keen to shield its Black Sea fleet. Protection of their military base and armaments is a legitimate military objective. There could be all sorts of nasty things best kept under military control. How far it is legitimate to exercise military control outside the base in another country's territory is very much open to debate and wrangling over treaties, but it seems clear that Russia intends to secure its interests first and talk later.

It's striking that any number of of the world's ills arise from disaffected ethnic or religious groupings corralled in boundaries laid down in the past which do little to reflect the feelings of the local population. From the outside and with little knowledge of the issues beyond those explained by the BBC and others, it appears maintaining the Ukraine as a whole entity in its current format will be extremely difficult. The broad-brush solution may be for the East and South to be aligned to Russia, and West to the EU. But even that will create many winners and losers in both territories as the ethnic populations will not divide up that neatly.

I cannot see the West doing more than make a lot of noise. I hope they have not been actively subverting the events in Kiev, but that may be naive. As always, the people best able to sort it out by hook or by crook are the Ukrainians. Geo-politics will likely not allow that to happen.

Dark times where I struggle to see good outcomes for the people affected, whatever their allegiances.

hertsman

[lowlevelRAF]

Couple of video's I have found of the alleged helicopters going towards the military airport at Sevastopol. BBC News live also saying 5x IL-76 have also landed at the military airfield.

Got the videos from here: http://theaviationist.com/

A mix fo Mi-24 & Mi8/17 helicopters
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYFh2lABg48

Again another mix of Helicopters or just all MI-24s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TVyPiHVZ1A

I know I would not like to be in the region at the moment!

[Richard B]

I don't pretend to understand all the regional issues involved in this upheaval. There appear to be key arguments around which power bloc to fall in behind - Russia or the EU - which in turn have their roots in a turbulent and violent history. Add in that Ukraine is bust and it's a dreadful situation for all involved, be they pro-west or pro-Russia.

It's not surprising that Russia is keen to shield its Black Sea fleet. Protection of their military base and armaments is a legitimate military objective. There could be all sorts of nasty things best kept under military control. How far it is legitimate to exercise military control outside the base in another country's territory is very much open to debate and wrangling over treaties, but it seems clear that Russia intends to secure its interests first and talk later.

It's striking that any number of of the world's ills arise from disaffected ethnic or religious groupings corralled in boundaries laid down in the past which do little to reflect the feelings of the local population. From the outside and with little knowledge of the issues beyond those explained by the BBC and others, it appears maintaining the Ukraine as a whole entity in its current format will be extremely difficult. The broad-brush solution may be for the East and South to be aligned to Russia, and West to the EU. But even that will create many winners and losers in both territories as the ethnic populations will not divide up that neatly.

I cannot see the West doing more than make a lot of noise. I hope they have not been actively subverting the events in Kiev, but that may be naive. As always, the people best able to sort it out by hook or by crook are the Ukrainians. Geo-politics will likely not allow that to happen.

Dark times where I struggle to see good outcomes for the people affected, whatever their allegiances.

hertsman

Good post, and agree with the many ethnic areas that could all break away or cause other conflicts, this could blow up very quickly and become a very nasty outcome to many.
just shows how things can change very fast, A new cold war or other conflicts with costly results.

We and much of NATO do not have the resources we once had to stand on a cold war footing.

[Ronald Reagan]

Thanks for the video links lowlevelRAF. Very impressive. Especially all the helicopters flying over the guys house!
Many in the Crimea will view this as a liberation from the new regime in Kiev.

[TankBuster]

Not good news at all.

Looks like a rapidly developing situation that has the potential to really get out of hand .
I really hope we don't get involved, I've always said that we should never take our eyes off of the Ruskies.

Worrying times indeed.

TankBuster

[toom317]

Might see some renewed Mig/SU/TU action in the area facing off against the West. Lovely...

Hope you get on the frontline and are able to send us back some action pics.

[Ronald Reagan]

I would never underestimate the Russians, never ever. I would label them as either number 2 or 3 superpower in the world. Russia or China is in that number two slot with the other number three. What with their alliance as well they have a force that can rival the US and even surpass it in some areas while lagging behind in many others. The idea of a superpower vs superpower war terrifies me. That's why its best to keep out of all small scale things like this which do not concern us.

[bobthehandyman]

Russia is protecting it's assets, not people. Russia will never see this region become part of the EU, and the west will never get into a fist fight over this region, civil war on the other hand is a possibility.

[Ronald Reagan]

Happy Camper, considering the wars the west have engaged in during recent years, Iraq and Libya come to mind, the western governments have no room to talk. They totally destabilized the middle east through their actions and increased the risk of terrorism by a huge level. The biggest joke is the morons wanted to repeat the mistake a third time in Syria!
Modern Russia is a saint when it comes to comparing them to the modern USA and its wars!
I would be far more worried about a bunch of moronic US politicians blundering into World War 3 than I would about the Russians doing anything.
I think you underestimate Chinese and Russian capabilities, though one on one they are not a match for the US, together would be a different story.
The general trend at the moment is that Russia and China are growing stronger while the US is in decline. I used to really worry about this and the fate of the west. But considering its now us who tend to engage in the immoral and sometimes illegal wars far from our own territory and doing more harm than good in the world, I am not so sure its such a bad thing. At the very least we need opposing power blocks on at least an equal footing to keep each other in check.

[Ronald Reagan]

Putin: Kremlin heeding Crimea leader's call for help

http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/l ... z2uia05suu

[Gary]

Modern Russia is a saint when it comes to comparing them to the modern USA and its wars!

nice joke, what about the recent Russian wars with Georgia, Chechnya etc can hardly call Russia saints out of sight out of mind and all that

[Ronald Reagan]

Georgia was justified to protect the ethnic Russians, yet again the case of the west getting to close to Russia and they simply won't put up with that.
Chechnya is much more iffy, but it is at least on their doorstep, its in their sphere of influence. Unlike virtually all our conflicts which are thousands of miles away from Britain and the US, its often very open to debate what business they are of ours. The biggest disappointment is that most of the places we intervene in are worse after the intervention than before!

[quid21]

Modern Russia is a saint when it comes to comparing them to the modern USA and its wars!

nice joke, what about the recent Russian wars with Georgia, Chechnya etc can hardly call Russia saints out of sight out of mind and all that

Not forgetting Afghanistan back in the 80's....

[Ronald Reagan]

Modern Russia is a saint when it comes to comparing them to the modern USA and its wars!

nice joke, what about the recent Russian wars with Georgia, Chechnya etc can hardly call Russia saints out of sight out of mind and all that

Not forgetting Afghanistan back in the 80's....

Your right, their invasion of Afghanistan was a disaster and in many ways contributed hugely to the fall of the USSR. It was a failure much like our invasion of Afghanistan is now. If they could not win with their troop numbers there is no way we will change that place much.
We could say Afghanistan was a Soviet disaster and Vietnam was the American disaster. Despite all the US did in Vietnam along with other allied nations, despite building up South Vietnam as much as they did, making it one of the most well armed nations on Earth, Hanoi still won and control all of Vietnam to this day.
There is one thing we must all thanks the Russians for though and that's for doing the lions share of the fighting in World War 2. Without the Red Army onside its open to debate if the west would have won World War 2 in Europe, its possible we could have won but the cost to us would have been far higher in terms of lives, plus it would likely have taken many more years to beat Germany if we had done so at all. If the majority of the German army had been in France and not in the east then one wonders if the Normandy landings could have even taken place. One of the reasons they are so paranoid about other powers encroaching upon their borders is World War 2. I remember once talking to one of my Russian friends about NATO and how it was not so bad, her reply ''Oh you mean the anti Russian club''! Maybe with hindsight at the end of the Cold War we should have dissolved NATO and it could have gone the same way as the Warsaw Pact. At the very least moving NATO further eastwards was a big mistake as Russia considers this a huge threat. I would have been inclined to leave the eastern European nations as a non aligned buffer zone between east and west, certainly with no NATO membership offered and no western bases in those nations. On the other hand I would not have cut our own military forces to such a small size as we have thus making us weak and vulnerable. I would liked to have kept a large military, somewhat more independent of Washington in terms of foreign policy but only used our forces if it was 100% certain it was the right thing. The only major war from 1980 to now I would have backed would have been the Falklands.

[Aircraftpaulcornwall]

Hi all,
Cornish-guy: Hi mate, I also keep a regular eye on FR24 and I am amazed at how many examples of air traffic there all over Europe/UK etc.
I am not sure if I'm right, but I have heard tell that at least some of these a/c may have filed flight plans ages ago and it is at least some of these that are shown.
However, there also seems to be a lot of 'live' traffic as well - for example a number of weeks ago when a/c were diverted from Heathrow, it showed up on Sky News
on their big screen as a clear area over the airport and surrounding areas!

As to the other comments and observations by other contributors - you all make good sense, especially as regards the west getting in any way militarily involved in all of this developing and possibly dangerous situation. It would probably be best if they could eventually sort it out amongst themselves, particularly good if they were able to do it peacefully and 'democratically'!!
And, yes, Afghanistan & other middle eastern involvement has, for the west, been very questionable at times. --Paul