Did you know that registration to Fighter Control is completely free and brings you lots of added features? Find out more....

Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

A forum for discussing all things related to MILITARY AVIATION including Military Aviation news. No off-topic discussions here please.
Agent K
Posts: 905
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2011 7:50 am
Location: Nearby RAF Henlow, Bedfordshire

Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by Agent K » Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:57 pm

I know it’s behind a pay wall but important enough to share the context here.

Basically, Prime Minister Cummings is planning to cut the army by 20,000, reduce the Royal Marines, scrap the Hercules fleet, reduce the helicopter fleet and close RAF bases, amongst other things.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/arm ... -bc2zbqm2h

Whilst not approved, yet, to those who are still stupid enough to think of Johnson as a man of the people and the conservatives as protectors of the armed forces, you’ve been had...... :grr:

pug
Posts: 67
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2011 7:24 pm

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by pug » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:48 pm

Sadly not surprising, Demonic Cummings wants to radically reform the country. His Brexit strategy was just the beginning. There were talks recently of him wanting to start a U.K. equivalent of DARPA, intelligence over brute force? Such an undertaking would require £Billions to be successful, and that cash has to be syphoned from somewhere. Maybe there is a discussion to be had about the future of defence policy - we simply don’t fight wars like we did even 30 years ago - but the military in its current guise provides opportunities for many people. Solid transferable skills and technology simply not possible to develop in the civilian world, and arguably beneficial to the economy once time served.

Wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if in the not too distant future the US will have a larger military presence in the U.K. than our own military, with a New Zealand model applied. We will have to find our place as a small island in an increasingly globalised economy. I fear the worst is yet to come, and the fallout from the pandemic will make matters much worse!

To think people were getting swayed by the (non-existent) prospect of an ‘EU Army’! How ironic.

page_verify
Posts: 1255
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2010 9:19 pm

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by page_verify » Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:46 am

Media sensationalism again. The defence budget isn't being cut. The MoD is merely retiring some capabilities it no longer needs or can no longer justify and replacing them with more appropriate capabilities. What all well run organisations do.

pug
Posts: 67
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2011 7:24 pm

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by pug » Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:25 am

page_verify wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:46 am
Media sensationalism again. The defence budget isn't being cut. The MoD is merely retiring some capabilities it no longer needs or can no longer justify and replacing them with more appropriate capabilities. What all well run organisations do.
It’s not sensationalism, it’s the truth. Gvt. tells MOD it has a shrinking pot of cash, MOD forced to make savings. Been happening for years. Would say the most recent high profile examples that resonate on this forum being the retirement of Joint Force Harrier prematurely and the unceremonious scrapping of Nimrod, both leaving capability gaps that are now only just being filled - by American hardware! With almost a decade long gap for both, were they really needed in the first place?

There will be less funding for the MOD in the aftermath of this pandemic, do not be surprised to see more wider cuts to the armed forces.

david2222
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:17 pm

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by david2222 » Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:29 am

is this fact ?have the govt or mod admitted to devastating the armed forces or is the times trying to sell newspapers in a shrinking market?

User avatar
plmc135
Posts: 1882
Joined: Wed Oct 07, 2009 1:32 pm
Location: South Lincolnshire

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by plmc135 » Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:41 am

More journalistic sensationalism lets keep it off FC.

Agent K
Posts: 905
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2011 7:50 am
Location: Nearby RAF Henlow, Bedfordshire

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by Agent K » Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:12 am

If it was the Mail or the Sun then yes I'd be wary of sensationalism, but the Times holds credibility, and the report's authors are very well read and published in defence and politics, so I don't doubt there is substance to the report, and worthy of raising here. Yes it is a worse case, but it shows the thinking, and if you follow DC's and his masters actions closely, I don't doubt there will be a shake up the likes of which we've not seen in decades.

Vulcan74
Posts: 601
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:26 am

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by Vulcan74 » Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:42 am

Wait & see it's all if's & but's.

Brave New World
Posts: 20
Joined: Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:41 am

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by Brave New World » Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:47 am

An MoD insider called it total nonsense.

Every time there is a defence review in the offing the media comes out with lots of total inaccurate nonsense.

I would ignore the media, and listen to those actually qualified to give a real analysis such as RUSI, who have highlighted the need for national resilience and that Defence is in danger of worrying short-sightedness if it focuses exclusively on softer capabilities (such as information activity or deterring aggressors below the threshold of combat operations) to the exclusion of its hard power.

https://rusi.org/commentary/uk-integrat ... till-valid

But a source inside the Ministry of Defence told the Sun it was ‘absolute nonsense’ to suggest 20,000 soldiers would be axed. An MOD spokesman said: ‘It is false to say No 10 plans to cut defence. We will fulfil our manifesto commitments, including to increase the defence budget above inflation. ‘We do not recognise the accounts of the alleged meetings. This Government has committed to grow defence spending . ‘The MoD is progressing its contribution to the Integrated Review by planning how best to meet tomorrow’s threats within that increasing budget.’

https://metro.co.uk/2020/07/06/army-sla ... -12950143/

Last edited by Brave New World on Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:09 am, edited 3 times in total.

pug
Posts: 67
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2011 7:24 pm

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by pug » Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:05 am

Brave New World wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:47 am
An MoD insider called it total nonsense.

Every time there is a defence review in the offing the media comes out with lots of total inaccurate nonsense.

But a source inside the Ministry of Defence told the Sun it was ‘absolute nonsense’ to suggest 20,000 soldiers would be axed. An MOD spokesman said: ‘It is false to say No 10 plans to cut defence. We will fulfil our manifesto commitments, including to increase the defence budget above inflation. ‘We do not recognise the accounts of the alleged meetings. This Government has committed to grow defence spending . ‘The MoD is progressing its contribution to the Integrated Review by planning how best to meet tomorrow’s threats within that increasing budget.’

https://metro.co.uk/2020/07/06/army-sla ... -12950143/

It’s important to be skeptical when an article quotes from a ‘source’, as they can write what they like without an accountable name. The MOD will maintain that position until such time that the Government announce budget cuts to allow for the formation of their DARPA.

Negative viewpoint perhaps, but the shape of our hobby and enthusiasm for military aircraft movements revolves solely around decisions made in Parliament and Whitehall, so perhaps is worthy of debate.

Agent K
Posts: 905
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2011 7:50 am
Location: Nearby RAF Henlow, Bedfordshire

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by Agent K » Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:09 am

What's that they say? there's no smoke without fire...……… and you understand how this propaganda works? throw the worse case scenario out there, 20K, wow that's shocking, outrageous, and then when it comes it's only a 5K reduction, phew that's 15K troops saved, brilliant, not so bad after all...….. etc. etc.

Now mass AI and such are very much DC's thinking and aims, so again as much as time will tell, I wouldn't dismiss the source and actual information here as 100% nonsense as it ties in with known fact. Yes non of it is approved, yet, as this is but an early stage of, and an exercise in, contribution to an autumnal review, of which detail will not be finalised at this stage, but it would be naive to doubt that these conversations and proposals are being had.

Brave New World
Posts: 20
Joined: Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:41 am

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by Brave New World » Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:13 am

pug wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:05 am
Brave New World wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:47 am
An MoD insider called it total nonsense.

Every time there is a defence review in the offing the media comes out with lots of total inaccurate nonsense.

But a source inside the Ministry of Defence told the Sun it was ‘absolute nonsense’ to suggest 20,000 soldiers would be axed. An MOD spokesman said: ‘It is false to say No 10 plans to cut defence. We will fulfil our manifesto commitments, including to increase the defence budget above inflation. ‘We do not recognise the accounts of the alleged meetings. This Government has committed to grow defence spending . ‘The MoD is progressing its contribution to the Integrated Review by planning how best to meet tomorrow’s threats within that increasing budget.’

https://metro.co.uk/2020/07/06/army-sla ... -12950143/

It’s important to be skeptical when an article quotes from a ‘source’, as they can write what they like without an accountable name. The MOD will maintain that position until such time that the Government announce budget cuts to allow for the formation of their DARPA.

Negative viewpoint perhaps, but the shape of our hobby and enthusiasm for military aircraft movements revolves solely around decisions made in Parliament and Whitehall, so perhaps is worthy of debate.
The current Government is committed to exceeding the NATO 2% GDP target, a well as a commitment to ‘increase the budget by 0.5% above inflation each year’. Assuming the government remains bound by its manifesto commitments, defence spending should not, therefore, fall from current levels.

As for Cummings he is not directly involved in the review, whilst space is not something we are going to massively invest at the expense of the RAF, whilst there has already been significant cyber investment in recent years.

I can't see the Pumas or Hercules being scrapped indeed RUSI talk about the need for increased logistics in relation to lessons learned from recent events, whilst the Arctic region is becoming ever more important so cuttng the Royal Marines would be fairly stupid, and the idea of cutting 20,000 from the Army is nonsense.

The F-35B might be under pressure but I doubt there will be big cuts.

The UK would do well to concentrate on NATO's Northern flank, North Atlantic and the GIUK Gap, whilst maintaining a capability in relation to the Med and Southern flank where we have Gb, Cyprus and caoabilities in the Middle East.

The Central European flank should now be left to the French and Germans.

As for Cyber and Space, it is cheaper and more effective for the UK to work with allies in these areas rather than go it alone, and the UK has strong links in terms of five eyes already and could use this to it's advantage.

SPERX
Posts: 53
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 5:46 pm

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by SPERX » Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:27 am

When a government "source" says that "we do not recognise the account of the meeting" you do realise that means they dare not deny such a meeting took place and that the substance of the claims are false. "We do not recognise..." is a hedge against someone having the minutes of a meeting, or a recording on a smart phone.

Cummings has his finger in every Whitehall pie - its his raison d'etre. Thats why there was the brouhaha over SPADs - he now directly employs the SPADs who are answerable to him rather than their Ministers. In my view it is naive to claim that he has no direct involvement in the review.

I think Agent K analyses it correctly - float the idea of a 20K Army reduction; test the back bench waters; test public opnion and then announce a 5K reduction to the great relief of the unsuspecting masses.

I hope I am wrong as the forces are already dangerously depleted, but I would not trust the present regime.
They can call it what they want
BUT ITS NOT A PROPER LIGHTNING

pug
Posts: 67
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2011 7:24 pm

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by pug » Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:29 am

As for Cummings he is not directly involved in the review, whilst space is not something we are going to massively invest at the expense of the RAF, whilst there has already been significant cyber investment in recent years
I’m afraid he’s far more involved in all aspects of decision making in the current Government than we would like to believe. As soon as Boris won the election it was the Cummings instigated Brexit that we got. As far as I’m aware, there has been no announcement as to where this 2% GDB is going to be invested, and it’s quite apparent that the current military structure is not a priority to DC et al, favouring ‘Cyber-warefare and intelligence’ over boots on the ground (and aircraft in the sky). Would not be surprised to see orders cut again, Army downsizing and new branches opening up to focus on more modern threats. Cummings has been highly critical of current military procurement and spending procedures - that has been well covered in the press and in his own blogs.

Your edited post makes complete sense, but unfortunately, as you probably know, what makes sense to us doesn’t necessarily make sense in Whitehall. We also have to take into account just how much this pandemic has cost the country. When you add the cost of Brexit and increasing public pressure on investment in the health and social sector, aligned with the blueprint DC seems to have for the country, we will have to accept a radical change in our military commitments.

User avatar
TonyO
Posts: 1076
Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2009 7:52 pm
Location: Laandaaan, UK
Contact:

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by TonyO » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:25 pm

Brave New World wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:13 am

The current Government is committed to exceeding the NATO 2% GDP target, a well as a commitment to ‘increase the budget by 0.5% above inflation each year’. Assuming the government remains bound by its manifesto commitments, defence spending should not, therefore, fall from current levels.
Exceeding the 2% GDP target is actually quite easy, because GDP will fall as a result of COVID and no-deal Brexit, they just have to maintain some semblance of maintaining the current inadequate budget, and it should reach 3-4% of GDP quite easily.

Usually such reports of cuts are usually the worst case scenario, Boris has already said in a recent speech that the UK is no longer a military superpower, which should be fairly clear that something is coming. The UK will be infinitely more vulnerable at the end of this year as we "no-deal," fortunately COVID has prepared us well for it, but none of the threats that we face will have gone away.

page_verify
Posts: 1255
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2010 9:19 pm

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by page_verify » Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:43 pm

I can't remember the last time something was "cut" from the MOD capabilities that we either didn't need any more, was too dangerous to keep, wouldn't benefit from consolidation, or which was similar to another capability. Sorry, but there's always far too much emotion about expensive and niche capabilities we don't need anymore in my view.

RubyRoo
Posts: 249
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2015 5:30 pm

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by RubyRoo » Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:27 pm

I suspect Agent K is quite right in his assumptions. They'll flout the idea of a 20k personnel reduction and then we won't all feel so bad when it's 'only' 5-10k that get removed. There was even talk of the entire Royal Marines being gotten rid of which would be insanity. Anyone who possibly thought that defence spending would increase following Brexit and now the Coronavirus is genuinely nuts.

Cuts are coming. There's no ifs or buts about it. Defence has been cut to the bone over the last 15 years so it's hard to see what they'll get rid of this time, but my guesses would be:
- HMS Albion and HMS Bulwark removed from service.
- HMS PoW put in mothballs.
- 1-3 Type 23 frigates put in mothballs.
- Delays announced in T26 and T31e procurement.
- 1 Astute class sub to be withdrawn.
- One of RAF Odiham/Benson/Northolt/Leeming to be considered for closure.
- Hercs to bite the dust?
- 48 F-35Bs announced as the final amount with the final 90 to be the 'cheaper' A model.

I'm not well versed on the Army so couldn't really comment, but I would imagine they'd be likely to be significant reductions in numbers.

Brave New World
Posts: 20
Joined: Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:41 am

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by Brave New World » Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:16 pm

RubyRoo wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:27 pm
I suspect Agent K is quite right in his assumptions. They'll flout the idea of a 20k personnel reduction and then we won't all feel so bad when it's 'only' 5-10k that get removed. There was even talk of the entire Royal Marines being gotten rid of which would be insanity. Anyone who possibly thought that defence spending would increase following Brexit and now the Coronavirus is genuinely nuts.

Cuts are coming. There's no ifs or buts about it. Defence has been cut to the bone over the last 15 years so it's hard to see what they'll get rid of this time, but my guesses would be:
- HMS Albion and HMS Bulwark removed from service.
- HMS PoW put in mothballs.
- 1-3 Type 23 frigates put in mothballs.
- Delays announced in T26 and T31e procurement.
- 1 Astute class sub to be withdrawn.
- One of RAF Odiham/Benson/Northolt/Leeming to be considered for closure.
- Hercs to bite the dust?
- 48 F-35Bs announced as the final amount with the final 90 to be the 'cheaper' A model.

I'm not well versed on the Army so couldn't really comment, but I would imagine they'd be likely to be significant reductions in numbers.
The proposals you have set out above are merely salami slicing, something that was promised wouldn't happen in terms of this review, whilst some reports have suggested that the review may be an opportunity to cut Developmental Aid, which is around £14 Billion a year, as well as allowing some aid to be used for military support roles overseas.

https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-anal ... opment-fun

Last time there was talk of serious defence cuts in 2017 were considered there was a backbench rebellion, and it was the backbenchers and 1922 Committee who eventually forced out May and her advisors' who were the first to go.

In 2017 the Conservative backbenchers stated “We have drawn up a red line on the strength and capability of our armed forces.”

I would suggest that the same would happen again, whilst MP's whose constituencies were effected would also be up in arms.

Cummings is little more than an advisor, and he may have survived by the skin of his teeth until now but he won't survive a backbench rebellion and pressure from the likes of the 1922 Committee who can destroy Prime Ministers careers, and it is ultimately Johnson who has to listen to those in his own party, as well as select committees and the electorate.

The UK PM is not as powerful as an American President, they are merely first among equals in terms of cabinet, and both the backbenchers and party members also have a lot of power, and defence cuts are never popular with the Conservatives, especially ones that compromise our position as a first tier power, indeed the current defence review is supposed to be ensuring that the UK remains a tier one power.

I therefore doubt there will be cuts that the parliamentary defence committee and backbenchers can not support.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/artic ... fence-cuts

page_verify
Posts: 1255
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2010 9:19 pm

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by page_verify » Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:29 pm

Brave New World wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:16 pm
The proposals you have set out above are merely salami slicing, something that was promised wouldn't happen in terms of this review, whilst some reports have suggested that the review may be an opportunity to cut Developmental Aid, which is around £14 Billion a year, as well as allowing some aid to be used for military support roles overseas.
Indeed, I completely agree - this SDR quite rightly appears as though it will consider the role of defence in the much broader area of foreign policy especially given we're in an era with no significant operational military commitments, a situation the country has not been in for over 20 years. It makes sense then that the contribution defence makes is questioned and, perhaps just as importantly, who is benefiting most and therefore who should be contributing the most also be considered. For example, some may forget in these reviews that the primary role of the FCO is safeguarding the UK’s national security, implying there is at the least a chance that two departments may be trying to do the same work independently of each other. A clear opportunity one would hope to halve the cost of achieving a political objective. Perhaps then it may be that the MOD should get at least some of its funding from the FCO giving the opportunity to take from the MOD and give a little less back to the FCO.

Nonetheless, I'm sure the MOD's existing inventories will get reviewed to free up the much needed cash to challenge the growth of China's dominance. In the 2020s, the country needs a military helicopter, perhaps two types. An airlift capability, perhaps one large and one small. An air-to-air aircraft and an air-to-ground aircraft - although we're close to that capability level now. My lack of awareness means I've no idea how much duplication the Army and Navy have in their inventories.

Vulcan74
Posts: 601
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:26 am

Re: Army, Navy, RAF severe cuts

Post by Vulcan74 » Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:05 pm

But after all that they will still be advertising to join up!!

Post Reply

Return to “The Fighter Control Mess”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Calum1991 and 37 guests